SWODY1
SPC AC 051609
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1109 AM CDT WED OCT 05 2011
VALID 051630Z - 061200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SRN HIGH PLAINS...
A LONGWAVE TROUGH IN THE WEST WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...AS A LARGE RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE COUNTRY. AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING TROUGH...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
...CENTERED OVER CENTRAL NM THIS MORNING...WILL BE EJECTED ENEWD
INTO THE TX PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE THE UPPER RIDGE FORCES
THE SYSTEM TO TURN NNEWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE ONGOING THIS MORNING NEAR THE NM/TX
PANHANDLE BORDER AND SHOULD BE MAINTAINED EWD THROUGH THE TX
PANHANDLE AND INTO FAR WRN OK THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
ALTHOUGH DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY ARE IN THE 40S ACROSS THE TX
PANHANDLE...HIGHER VALUES...MID TO UPPER 50S FROM LBB SWD...WILL
SHIFT NWD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITHIN 20-30 KT LOW LEVEL WINDS.
SOME HEATING ALONG WITH THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN MLCAPES NEAR 500 J/KG. THE COMBINATION OF
THE WEAK INSTABILITY...STRONG FORCING AND VEERING/STRENGTHENING WIND
PROFILES SHOULD RESULT IN A STRONGER STORM OR TWO...AS ALSO SHOWN ON
THE VARIOUS STORM SCALE MODELS. ALTHOUGH THE INSTABILITY IS
WEAK...THE SHEAR AND FORCING MIGHT SUPPORT A MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL
THREAT THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL AROUND DARK. THUS...A 5% HAIL
PROBABILITY HAS BEEN ADDED FOR THIS POTENTIAL SHORT-LIVED THREAT.
..IMY/COHEN.. 10/05/2011
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