SWODY1
SPC AC 271557
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1057 AM CDT THU OCT 27 2011
VALID 271630Z - 281200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT THIS MORNING EXTENDED FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SWWD
INTO CENTRAL/SWRN TX OF THE SRN PLAINS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN
UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WAS MOVING EWD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM...A BROAD SWATH OF PCPN/ELEVATED CONVECTION WAS
OCCURRING NORTH OF THE FRONT FROM THE TX PANHANDLE EWD INTO THE WRN
TN VALLEY. HOWEVER...NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS MUCAPES WILL
BE LESS THAN 50 J/KG.
AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES SEWD THROUGH SRN TX...LATEST OPERATIONAL AND
STORM SCALE MODELS SUGGEST SURFACE BASED CONVECTION WILL FORM ALONG
THE FRONT BETWEEN LFK AND COT AROUND 00Z. THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD
BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS...BUT SINCE THE STRONGEST FORCING
WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE FRONT AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A WARM
LAYER BETWEEN 600-700 MB...THE SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW.
ELSEWHERE...CONVERGENCE NEAR A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE SRN
FL PENINSULA MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR A FEW TSTMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...THOUGH WEAK LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO
LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT.
..IMY/LEITMAN.. 10/27/2011
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