SWODY1
SPC AC 290040
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0740 PM CDT FRI OCT 28 2011
VALID 290100Z - 291200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...FL PENINSULA...
LOW-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS AND SHEAR REMAIN GENERALLY WEAK AS OF
29/00-01Z. BUT LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS INCREASINGLY SUGGESTIVE
THAT AT LEAST MODEST STRENGTHENING WILL OCCUR LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...WITH SOUTHERLY 850 MB WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND OR
ABOVE 30 KT. IF THIS OCCURS...LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS MAY ENLARGE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AT LEAST LOW PROBABILITIES FOR A TORNADO OR
LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH CONVECTION SPREADING INLAND ACROSS
THE KEYS AND SOUTHERN PENINSULA...IN THE PRESENCE OF HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT AND WEAK TO MODERATE CAPE.
...SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COASTAL STATES...
WEAK DESTABILIZATION APPEARS LIKELY OVERNIGHT ABOVE THE INVERSION
ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING FROM THE LEE OF THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO AREAS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR COINCIDENT WITH INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH STRENGTHENING LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM
ADVECTION...AS A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE
APPALACHIANS...AND STILL SEEMS LIKELY TO YIELD CONVECTION CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LIGHTNING BY THE 09-12Z TIME FRAME.
..KERR.. 10/29/2011
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