SWODY2
SPC AC 040507
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1207 AM CDT TUE OCT 04 2011
VALID 051200Z - 061200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY THU
AS A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST SHIFTS INLAND WHILE
A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE MS VALLEY. A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS WILL DAMPEN AS IT TRACKS NEWD TO
THE CNTRL PLAINS. GENERALLY ISOLATED TSTMS APPEAR PROBABLE FROM
PARTS OF THE W COAST TO THE GREAT BASIN AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS.
...PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...
A CORRIDOR OF MODERATE TO STRONGLY VEERING WIND PROFILES SHOULD
DEVELOP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTING ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES AND THE
LARGER-SCALE TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE WRN CONUS. PROMINENT
DIFFERENCES PERSIST WITH REGARD TO THE DEGREE OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTENING AS THE GFS CONTINUES TO DEPICT A MORE SUBSTANTIAL
INCREASE IN THE POLEWARD RETURN OF MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE. GIVEN
CURRENT FRONTAL POSITION IN THE WRN GULF...THIS APPEARS TO BE AN
OUTLIER COMPARED TO THE NAM/SREF/ECMWF.
THE FILLING AND RELATIVELY EARLY EJECTION OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WITH RESPECT TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELL WIND
PROFILES...SUGGESTS THAT MID/UPPER-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE/WARMING WOULD
CURTAIL INSTABILITY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. WITH THE LIKELIHOOD
OF ONLY MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ...BUOYANCY SHOULD REMAIN
WEAK AND PROBABLY MITIGATE TSTM COVERAGE BEYOND ISOLATED. OVERALL
SETUP DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT AN INTRODUCTION OF SEVERE
PROBABILITIES ATTM.
..GRAMS/KERR.. 10/04/2011
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