DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 071729
SWODY2
SPC AC 071728

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1228 PM CDT FRI OCT 07 2011

VALID 081200Z - 091200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
WITH A LARGE-SCALE RIDGE PREVAILING OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE
CONUS...AND A RIDGE ALSO SITUATED OVER MOST OF THE WEST...THE MAIN
FEATURE OF INTEREST ALOFT THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE LARGE/SLOW-MOVING
TROUGH TRAVERSING THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/ROCKIES. THOUGH WEAKENING
SLOWLY WITH TIME AS IT IMPINGES ON THE ERN U.S. RIDGE...THIS TROUGH
-- AND AN ASSOCIATED/NEARLY STATIONARY N-S SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE
-- SHOULD AID IN THE MAINTENANCE OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION/RAINFALL
ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

...MID MO VALLEY SSWWD TO THE TX BIG BEND...
A ZONE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD...INVOF THE SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE SITUATED
FROM NNE-SSW ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE CONVECTION SHOULD PERSIST INTO
THE AFTERNOON...AS SOME INTENSIFICATION/REGENERATION IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN AS MODEST DESTABILIZATION OCCURS WHERE LOCALLY LESS CLOUDY
AREAS PERMIT SOME HEATING.

WITH MODERATELY STRONG -- BUT SLY/MERIDIONAL -- FLOW ALOFT
EXPECTED...NNEWD-MOVING STORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH CELL TRAINING AND
PERSISTENT MERGING/INTERFERENCE CAN BE EXPECTED. THIS COMBINED WITH
THE CLOUDINESS AND PERSISTENT RAINFALL WHICH SHOULD LIMIT
DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL...OVERALL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS RELATIVELY
LOW. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN A NARROW BUT LENGTHY CORRIDOR OF
LOW-PROBABILITY SEVERE THREAT FROM THE MID MO VALLEY REGION SSWWD TO
THE TX BIG BEND.

STORMS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT...PERHAPS DECREASING OVER NRN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA BUT CONTINUING ELSEWHERE...THOUGH WHATEVER SEVERE
POTENTIAL REMAINS SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

..GOSS.. 10/07/2011

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