SWODY2
SPC AC 100506
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1206 AM CDT MON OCT 10 2011
VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN PROCESS OF AMPLIFICATION OVER THE PLAINS
TUESDAY AS STRONG UPPER JET DROPS SEWD FROM THE PACIFIC NW THROUGH
THE NRN AND CNTRL ROCKIES. THE AMPLIFYING TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE ERN GULF FINALLY EJECTING NEWD ALONG THE SERN
ATLANTIC SEABOARD. IN THE PROCESS...SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP NEWD ON
MARINE BOUNDARY ALONG THE SERN U.S. COASTAL AREA.
THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE PLAINS WILL LIKELY UNDERGO
FRONTOLYSIS AS THE POST FRONTAL FLOW BACKS IN ASSOCIATION WITH
DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH. HOWEVER...A PACIFIC FRONT WILL LIKELY MERGE
WITH THE LEE TROUGH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER
TROUGH AMPLIFIES EAST OF THE ROCKIES.
...SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS AREA...
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE SRN
AND CNTRL PLAINS AS THERMAL TROUGH ATTENDING THE AMPLIFYING UPPER
TROUGH OVERTAKES THE RESIDUAL THETA-E AXIS. INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN MARGINAL OWING TO MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WITH
DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 50S EXPECTED. A FEW STORMS MAY DEVELOP
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE LEE TROUGH FROM NWRN TX INTO WRN OK AND KS
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITHIN ZONE OF LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND DPVA ALOFT. COLD TEMPERATURES WITHIN THERMAL TROUGH
WITH -12C TO -16C AT 500 MB...STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
EFFECTIVE SHEAR RANGING FROM NEAR 40 KT IN NW TX TO AOB 30 KT OVER
THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A THREAT OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL.
HAVE INTRODUCED 5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES FROM NWRN TX INTO WRN OK AND
KS...BUT LIKELIHOOD OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY PRECLUDES A CATEGORICAL
RISK AREA AT THIS TIME.
...SC AND SERN NC COASTAL AREA...
ZONE OF STRONG ELY LOW LEVEL FLOW WITHIN GRADIENT BETWEEN CP HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NERN STATES AND NEWD DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE WILL
PERSIST AND SHIFT NWD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. COASTAL BOUNDARY WILL
REMAIN NEAR THE SC-NC COAST...BUT MAY EVENTUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE AS A
NEW LOW DEVELOPS IN ASSOCIATION WITH EJECTING UPPER LOW. IT APPEARS
THE LARGEST LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL REMAIN ON COOL SIDE OF THE
BOUNDARY AND DISPLACED FROM THE MORE UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER
THE GULF...LIMITING OVERALL SEVERE THREAT.
..DIAL.. 10/10/2011
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