SWODY2
SPC AC 301725
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1225 PM CDT SUN OCT 30 2011
VALID 311200Z - 011200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE OH AND TN VALLEYS
MONDAY MORNING AND INTO THE SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
AT THE SFC...A PSEUDO WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE NWD INTO SCNTRL
FL BY MIDDAY MONDAY. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION ALONG THIS FEATURE SHOULD HELP A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES. IN SPITE OF THIS...THE
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT SHOULD NOT BE SUFFICIENT FOR A
SEVERE THREAT. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AHEAD
OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS ERN NC ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXIT
REGION OF A 60 TO 75 KT MID-LEVEL JET MAX. WEAK INSTABILITY IN ERN
NC SHOULD KEEP THE UPDRAFTS RELATIVELY WEAK. NON-SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE BENEATH THE CORE OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALLEY WHERE LAPSE RATES WILL
BECOME STEEP AS SFC TEMPS WARM DURING THE DAY. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
CONUS...THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT.
..BROYLES.. 10/30/2011
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