SWODY3
SPC AC 030652
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0152 AM CDT MON OCT 03 2011
VALID 051200Z - 061200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY THU.
LARGE-SCALE TROUGH ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST WILL SHIFT INLAND AS A
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE MS VALLEY. A WEAKENING
SHORT WAVE TROUGH NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS WILL SHIFT NEWD AS IT
IMPINGES ON THE RIDGE. GENERALLY ISOLATED TSTMS APPEAR PROBABLE FROM
CNTRL CA NWD ALONG THE PACIFIC NW COAST AND FROM THE NRN
ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS SWD TO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS.
...PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...
ALTHOUGH TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH THE EJECTION OF THE FOUR
CORNERS SHORT WAVE TROUGH ONTO THE CNTRL PLAINS...GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY
CONSISTENT IN THIS TROUGH FILLING ON WED AS THE LARGE-SCALE WRN
CONUS TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG. MORE PROMINENT DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH
REGARD TO THE DEGREE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING AS THE 00Z GFS DEPICTS
A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN THE POLEWARD RETURN OF MODIFIED GULF
MOISTURE. GIVEN CURRENT FRONTAL POSITION IN THE WRN GULF...THIS
MODEL RUN APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER COMPARED TO THE NAM/SREF/ECMWF.
A CORRIDOR OF MODERATE TO STRONGLY VEERING WIND PROFILES MAY DEVELOP
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON /DEPENDENT ON THE AFOREMENTIONED TIMING OF
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH/. EVEN SO...INSTABILITY APPEARS LIKELY TO
REMAIN WEAK GIVEN EXPECTED MEAGER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND MODEST
MID/UPPER-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THUS...WILL REFRAIN FROM INTRODUCING
ANY SEVERE PROBABILITIES ATTM.
..GRAMS/KERR.. 10/03/2011
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