SWODY3
SPC AC 170730
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT MON OCT 17 2011
VALID 191200Z - 201200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
A VERY LARGE/HIGH-AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH ALIGNED ROUGHLY ALONG THE
MS VALLEY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD IS PROGGED TO SHIFT SLOWLY
EWD/NEWD WITH TIME...EVOLVING INTO A CLOSED LOW MOVING INTO THE
UPPER OH VALLEY LATE. MEANWHILE...THE WEAKER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
WRN U.S. IS FORECAST TO MINOR OUT AS IT IMPINGES ON THE RIDGE
UPSTREAM OVER THE ROCKIES.
AT THE SURFACE...MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE OVER THE ERN U.S. AS THE
GFS SHIFTS A LOW NWD ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND THEN NWWD INTO
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AS IT OCCLUDES. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
LINGERS INVOF THE NC OUTER BANKS AND OVER S FL EARLY...BUT SHIFTS
OFFSHORE BY LUNCHTIME. MEANWHILE...THE NAM IS ROUGHLY 12 HOURS
SLOWER...WITH THE SE U.S. LOW/FRONTAL POSITIONS FARTHER W/SW AND THE
FRONT STILL ONSHORE THROUGH SUNSET.
ELSEWHERE...A LARGE SURFACE HIGH WILL PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING ERN U.S. SYSTEM.
...COASTAL NC...
WHILE THE NAM WOULD SUGGEST SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE INLAND
CAROLINAS AND VICINITY WITH ITS MUCH SLOWER SURFACE SYSTEM
PROGRESSION...WILL OPT TO HOLD CLOSER TO A GFS-LIKE SOLUTION WITH
THE LOW MOVING NWD ALONG THE COAST AND THE FRONT MOVING OFFSHORE
EARLY. GIVEN THIS SOLUTION -- AND EVEN TO A LESSER DEGREE WITH THE
NAM SOLUTION -- SEVERE POTENTIAL WOULD BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NC
COAST WHERE WARM/MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR WOULD RESIDE. MAIN DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS WOULD BE TIMING...WITH ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL
ENDING EARLY IN THE DAY ACCORDING TO THE GFS...BUT OCCURRING
PRIMARILY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING PER THE NAM. MAIN
THREATS WOULD BE A LOCAL WIND GUST OR ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADO.
..GOSS.. 10/17/2011
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