SWODY3
SPC AC 230730
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT SUN OCT 23 2011
VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL STEADILY AMPLIFY OVER THE CONUS ON
TUESDAY...HIGHLIGHTED BY A SPLITTING/POSITIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH
AMPLIFYING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST. AS THIS OCCURS...A SURFACE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES REGION...WHILE A COLD FRONT ADVANCES EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE MIDWEST/MIDDLE MS VALLEY AND OZARKS. THIS AFOREMENTIONED
REGION IS WHERE THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOR THE PERIOD WILL
BE FOCUSED...ALTHOUGH A FEW TSTMS MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES/FOUR CORNERS VICINITY.
...OZARKS/MIDDLE MS VALLEY/MIDWEST...
THE REGION WILL INCREASINGLY COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT ON TUESDAY...WITH SEVERAL LOW AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCES
LIKELY TO AT LEAST GRAZE THE REGION. WITH AID OF A STRONG/PERSISTENT
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET...A WARM BUT ONLY MODESTLY MOIST AIRMASS
WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN EAST-SOUTHEAST
ADVANCING COLD FRONT...WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS LIKELY TO GENERALLY BE
RELEGATED TO THE 50S F IN MOST AREAS. GIVEN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN
AND ONLY MODEST /BUT INCREASING/ MOISTURE...THE WARM SECTOR MAY
GENERALLY REMAIN CAPPED THROUGH PEAK HEATING...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD INCREASE NEAR THE FRONT TOWARD/ESPECIALLY AFTER
DARK AS DPVA/WARM ADVECTION INCREASE. A DEGREE OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
VARIABILITY REGARDING SHORTWAVE TIMING AND THE EXTENT OF
MOISTENING/DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION PRECLUDE THE INTRODUCTION OF
SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME. THAT SAID...AT LEAST LOW SEVERE
PROBABILITIES COULD BE WARRANTED FOR HAIL/WIND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS.
..GUYER.. 10/23/2011
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