SWOD48
SPC AC 270848
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0348 AM CDT THU OCT 27 2011
VALID 301200Z - 041200Z
...DISCUSSION...
AS A RELATIVELY PROGRESSIVE LONGWAVE PATTERN PERSISTS...00Z
ECMWF/GEFS ARE IN CONSIDERABLE LARGE SCALE AGREEMENT INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK PRIOR TO DIVERGING DAY 6/TUESDAY AND BEYOND. THE DOMINANCE OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...CONTINENTAL TRAJECTORIES...AND COOL/STABLE
CONDITIONS EAST OF THE ROCKIES WILL RESULT IN A LIMITED DEEP
CONVECTIVE/SEVERE POTENTIAL INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...IF NOT
MID-WEEK. ANY TSTM POTENTIAL LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WILL LIKELY BE RELEGATED TO SOUTH FL IN VICINITY OF A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ALTHOUGH A RISK FOR SEVERE TSTMS IS NOT CURRENTLY
EXPECTED ESPECIALLY GIVEN A WEAKENING RINA /REFERENCE NHC
FORECASTS/. OVERALL...NO 30 PERCENT EQUIVALENT SEVERE RISK AREAS ARE
CURRENTLY WARRANTED FOR DAYS 4-8 GIVEN THE LIMITED POTENTIAL.
..GUYER.. 10/27/2011
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