SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052007
TXZ000-NMZ000-052200-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2224
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0307 PM CDT WED OCT 05 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...WRN TX PANHANDLE AND S PLAINS...E CNTRL NM
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 052007Z - 052200Z
SOME INCREASE IN CONVECTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT A WATCH WILL BE NEEDED.
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...IF ANY.
AN AREA OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED STORMS CONTINUES TO DRIFT EWD ACROSS
THE TX PANHANDLE IN A ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION. OUTFLOW HAS STABILIZED
THIS AREA...WITH WAVE CLOUDS SEEN ON VISIBLE IMAGERY. MEANWHILE...A
COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WAS TIGHTENING OVER ERN NM...BUT
CU FIELDS WERE RELATIVELY SHALLOW AT THIS TIME DUE TO MARGINAL
INSTABILITY.
STRONG INSTABILITY DOES EXIST OVER SERN NM/W CNTRL TX...NEAR AND S
OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. A FEW STORMS MAY DEVELOP HERE.
HOWEVER...RAPID WARMING ALOFT IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS...AND WITH SUCH WEAK INSTABILITY TO BEGIN WITH...IT WILL ONLY
GET WEAKER WITH TIME DESPITE FURTHER HEATING. THEREFORE...RATHER
SHALLOW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED...WITH STRONG VEERING
WIND PROFILES PERHAPS RESULTING IN A FEW STRONGER CELLS CAPABLE OF
SMALL HAIL. OTHERWISE...THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LOW.
..JEWELL.. 10/05/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...
LAT...LON 32680193 33420335 34060417 35120449 35740296 35590193
35050144 33880134 33120100 32760105 32680193
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