MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2231

ACUS11 KWNS 071924
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071924
NEZ000-SDZ000-KSZ000-072100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2231
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0224 PM CDT FRI OCT 07 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CNTRL KS...CNTRL NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 071924Z - 072100Z

SHOWER/ISOLATED TSTMS ARE COMMENCING ALONG A STALLED COLD FRONT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF N-CNTRL KS INTO S-CNTRL NEB. ACTIVITY SHOULD
GRADUALLY INCREASE ALONG THE FRONT AND POSE AN INITIAL RISK FOR
PRIMARILY LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL. THE
PROBABILITY OF A WW ISSUANCE BY 21Z IS 40 PERCENT.

19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT FROM 20 W GCK
N/NEWD TO NEAR EAR AND YKN. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS HAVE FORMED
IN THE PAST HALF HOUR ALONG THE FRONT IN N-CNTRL KS/S-CNTRL NEB
WHERE SURFACE CONVERGENCE APPEARS MAXIMIZED. DESPITE WEAK SHORT WAVE
RIDGING BETWEEN THE TROUGHS OVER THE NRN PLAINS AND THE
SOUTHWEST...RECENT HRRR RUNS AND 12Z WRF-NMM SUGGEST A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE SHOULD OCCUR ALONG THIS BOUNDARY DURING
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

ALTHOUGH EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS CERTAINLY SUFFICIENT FOR
SUPERCELLS...THE ORIENTATION OF DEEP-LAYER FLOW NEARLY PARALLEL TO
THE INITIATING BOUNDARY INFERS ACTIVITY SHOULD LARGELY ORGANIZE INTO
CLUSTERS/QUASI-LINEAR STRUCTURES ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THIS SHOULD
MITIGATE A MORE PROMINENT HAIL THREAT...AND BE CONDUCIVE TO
LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS. RELATIVELY STRONG AND GUSTY SURFACE WINDS
SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT GREATER EFFECTIVE SRH IN THE SHORT-TERM. BUT A
TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS EVENING AS THE LLJ
STRENGTHENS.

..GRAMS.. 10/07/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON 41519727 38349969 38170061 38300087 38620073 41799864
43029773 43149707 42899689 42569677 41519727

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