MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2243

ACUS11 KWNS 092300
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 092259
FLZ000-100200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2243
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0559 PM CDT SUN OCT 09 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS E-CENTRAL FL.

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL

VALID 092259Z - 100200Z

MOST INTENSE PORTION OF PERSISTENT CLUSTER OF
CONVECTION...CONSISTING OF BOTH WARM-CLOUD RAIN PROCESSES AND
EMBEDDED TSTMS...WILL MOVE SLOWLY ASHORE PORTIONS SPACE COAST REGION
DURING 00Z-03Z. 1-2 INCH/HOUR RATES WILL BE COMMON. 2-3 INCH/HOUR
RATES ARE LIKELY IN CORE OF THIS COMPLEX...INITIALLY OVER MAINLY
BREVARD COUNTIES THEN INLAND ACROSS PORTIONS ORANGE/OSCEOLA
COUNTIES. TRAINING OF ECHOES WITHIN PRIMARY PRECIP ARC...COMBINED
WITH SLOW TRANSLATION OF MCS...WILL EXACERBATE HAZARD FROM HEAVY
RAIN.

AS OF 22Z...SFC MESOANALYSIS...SUPPORTED BY LONG LOOPS OF
REFLECTIVITY AND VIS IMAGERY...INDICATED LOW-MIDLEVEL CYCLONE ABOUT
50 ESE MLB. THIS LOW WAS LOCATED JUST S OR SSE OF T-SHAPED
INTERSECTION OF TWO WELL-DEFINED CONFLUENCE AXES...SRN ONE ARCHING
SEWD ACROSS GRAND BAHAMA...NRN ONE CURVING AROUND W SIDE OF LOW AND
NNEWD ACROSS ATLANTIC WATERS WELL OFFSHORE NRN FL.
RELATED/LONGSTANDING MAX IN DEEP-LAYER ASCENT OF VERY HIGH-MOISTURE
CONTENT AIR MASS OVER NERN SEMICIRCLE OF CYCLONE IS SUPPORTING MOST
EFFICIENT/PROLIFIC RAIN PRODUCTION IN CONVECTIVE BAND JUST SW
THROUGH W THROUGH NNW OF LOW. THOUGH NOT WITHIN SAMPLING DOMAIN OF
AVAILABLE GPS OBS OR RAOBS...MODEL FCST SOUNDINGS IN MOIST SECTOR
REASONABLY DEPICT 2-2.25 INCH PW OVER THAT SECTOR OF CYCLONE.
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ARE WELL-SUITED TO DEEP WARM-CLOUD RAIN
PROCESSES...WITH CAPE LAYER EXTENDING INTO UPPER-LEVEL ICING REGIONS
SUPPORTING TSTMS WITH RESULTANT LOCAL RAIN-RATE ENHANCEMENT...AS
EVIDENT IN LTG-DETECTION TRENDS AND RADAR-DERIVED PRECIP PRODUCTS
OFFSHORE. STG COOLING TREND ALSO HAS BEEN NOTED IN IR CLOUD TOPS
PAST HOUR OFFSHORE SRN BREVARD COUNTY...ATOP BOTH HEAVIEST
REFLECTIVITIES AND INTERSECTING CONFLUENCE LINES.

..EDWARDS.. 10/09/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MLB...

LAT...LON 27758040 27938096 28308135 29008109 29118093 28418048
28438056 28278059 28108056 27758040

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