MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2246

ACUS11 KWNS 101612
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101612
SCZ000-GAZ000-FLZ000-101715-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2246
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1112 AM CDT MON OCT 10 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN GA TO SERN SC

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 865...

VALID 101612Z - 101715Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 865 CONTINUES.

THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO REMAINS NONZERO ACROSS THE
SERN GA PORTION OF WW 865. HOWEVER...LIMITED NWD DESTABILIZATION
TODAY AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS WWD REACHING APP BY
00Z SHOULD CONTINUE TO REDUCE THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT...AND THUS PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A NEW TORNADO WATCH.

MID-LATE MORNING SURFACE ANALYSES AND TRENDS IN VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWED THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE DRIFTING WNWWD ACROSS NRN
INTO NWRN FL /35 S VLD AT 16Z/. MODELS SUGGEST THE WWD MOVEMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND AS SUCH LIMIT
THE NWD ADVANCEMENT OF THE WARM SECTOR...WHICH WAS CURRENTLY LOCATED
15-30 MILES N OF THE FL/GA BORDER. THIS AND EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS
EXTENDING ACROSS SC WILL PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR ANOTHER TORNADO WATCH
NWD OVER SERN GA INTO SERN SC.

ALTHOUGH STRONGER SURFACE HEATING HAS OCCURRED THIS MORNING ACROSS
SERN GA /TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 F/ WITHIN THE
WARM SECTOR...WEAK LAPSE RATES ARE GREATLY INHIBITING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER INSTABILITY. CURRENT OBJECTIVE ANALYSES
INDICATED EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES UP TO 200 M2/S2 ACROSS SERN GA.
HOWEVER...THE WEAK DESTABILIZATION IS LIMITING THE LIKELIHOOD FOR
STRONGER...SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS. IN ADDITION...STRONGER EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR IS LOCATED N OF THE WARM SECTOR AND WITHIN THE AXIS OF AN
ENELY LLJ. AS THE WRN EXTENT OF THIS LLJ SHIFTS WWD INTO SWRN
GA/SRN AL CONCURRENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...LOW LEVEL
SHEAR /I.E. TORNADO POTENTIAL ACROSS SERN GA/ WILL WEAKEN AS WELL.

..PETERS.. 10/10/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE...

LAT...LON 30748099 30748312 31938247 32258156 32248106 31878052
30748099

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