SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131818
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-131945-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2253
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0118 PM CDT THU OCT 13 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL GA...SERN AL...FL PANHANDLE
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 131818Z - 131945Z
LATEST SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SUGGEST WEAK UPPER VORT HAS MIGRATED
EWD ALONG THE TN/AL BORDER TO A POSITION JUST WEST OF CHA. THIS
FEATURE APPEARS TO BE ENHANCING THE LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND ONGOING
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS ERN AL/WRN GA. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EVOLVING ALONG NERN PLUME OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY...THOUGH STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE IN PLACE NEAR THE GULF COAST. FOR THIS REASON
IT WOULD SEEM THAT TSTM UPDRAFTS MAY BRIEFLY ATTAIN SEVERE LEVELS OR
AT LEAST EXHIBIT SOME STRENGTH FROM TIME TO TIME AS DEEP LAYER
VERTICAL SHEAR IS MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR ORGANIZATION. NE-SW
ORIENTED LINE SEGMENTS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH
AND HAIL COULD APPROACH DIME SIZE WITHIN THE STRONGER CORES.
..DARROW.. 10/13/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...
LAT...LON 31868672 33268413 32358290 30668550 31868672
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