SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132153
SCZ000-GAZ000-132330-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2254
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0453 PM CDT THU OCT 13 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/ERN GA...WRN/SRN SC
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 132153Z - 132330Z
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN/ERN GA AND WRN/SRN
SC WILL CONTINUE TO POSE AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
AND MARGINALLY SVR HAIL THROUGH EVENING. WW DOES NOT APPEAR
NECESSARY.
LATEST WV LOOP SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING E ACROSS
AL/GA...WITH MIXED MODE OF LINES AND DISCRETE CELLS OCCURRING AHEAD
OF THIS FEATURE OVER SRN/ERN GA...MOVING E AT AROUND 35 KT. ONE LINE
OF STORMS LOCATED 20 W OF AGS AT 2130Z IS ORIENTED PERPENDICULAR TO
50 KT MIDLEVEL W-SWLYS SPREADING DOWNSTREAM FROM THE UPPER TROUGH.
THIS LINE SHOULD ENTER SC DURING THE NEXT HOUR...THOUGH THE
COMBINATION OF WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER
IS RESULTING IN VERY MARGINAL INSTABILITY E OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER
/I.E. MLCAPE VALUES AOB 500 J PER KG/. THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND
WEAK LOW-LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT MAY PRECLUDE A MORE SIGNIFICANT
DAMAGING WIND THREAT...DESPITE FAVORABLY STRONG DEEP LAYER WLY SHEAR
/0-6 KM BULK SHEAR NEAR 50 KT/. FARTHER S OVER SRN GA...HI-RES RADAR
IMAGERY INDICATED A CELL WHICH MOVED ACROSS CRISP COUNTY AT 2110Z
DISPLAYED MARGINAL SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR
LARGE HAIL. THIS STORM HAS SINCE WEAKENED...BUT OTHER DISCRETE
ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO OCCUR OVER SRN GA...AND COULD DEVELOP
SPLITTING SUPERCELL STRUCTURES GIVEN LONG/STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS OVER
THE AREA...AND POSE A THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SVR HAIL. THOUGH
LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL FAVOR
ORGANIZED SVR STORM DEVELOPMENT PAST SUNSET...BOUNDARY LAYER
COOLING/DECREASING INSTABILITY SHOULD LEAD TO AN OVERALL WEAKENING
TREND IN STORMS DURING THE NEXT FEW HRS.
..GARNER.. 10/13/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...GSP...JAX...FFC...TAE...
LAT...LON 32788302 34138265 34628136 33168068 31428124 30798199
30778444 31278484 31838448 32788302
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