MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2261

ACUS11 KWNS 182205
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182205
FLZ000-182330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2261
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0505 PM CDT TUE OCT 18 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN FL PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 182205Z - 182330Z

A BRIEF TORNADO IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BUT THE
SPATIOTEMPORAL EXTENT AND MAGNITUDE OF THE THREAT APPEARS TOO
MARGINAL TO WARRANT A TORNADO WATCH ISSUANCE ATTM.

CLUSTER OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STRIKES HAS
PERSISTED ALONG THE ERN PANHANDLE COAST AND ADJACENT OFFSHORE WATERS
IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN MCV THAT IS CENTERED AROUND 15 W TLH. 12Z
WRF-NMM AND RECENT HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGEST DEEP CONVECTION SHOULD
CONTINUE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
PRIOR TO WEAKENING. THIS APPEARS CONSISTENT WITH THE RECENT TRACK OF
THE MCV TO THE N AWAY FROM THE COASTAL CLUSTER...WHERE INLAND
DESTABILIZATION HAS BEEN QUITE WEAK OWING TO ABUNDANT STRATIFORM
SHIELD. IN THE NEAR-TERM...0-1 KM SRH AROUND 200 M2/S2 PER TLH VWP
DATA WILL CERTAINLY BE ADEQUATE FOR TRANSIENT CIRCULATIONS AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO ALONG THE COAST.

..GRAMS.. 10/18/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...

LAT...LON 29868441 30328456 30528429 30488395 30358356 30088327
29788321 29538311 29358326 29538365 29728418 29868441

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