SWOMCD
SPC MCD 310055
FLZ000-310300-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2280
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0755 PM CDT SUN OCT 30 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...THE MIAMI AREA
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL
VALID 310055Z - 310300Z
A 10-15-MILE-WIDE AREA OF HEAVY-RAIN-PRODUCING CONVECTION CENTERED
OVER BISCAYNE BAY NEAR PINECREST WILL LIKELY REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE MIAMI
AREA NEAR AND SOUTH OF CORAL GABLES TOWARD PERRINE AND CUTLER
RIDGE...WITH ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLY OCCURRING AFTER 0130Z
FARTHER NORTHEAST TOWARD MIAMI BEACH AND DOWNTOWN MIAMI.
SFC MESOANALYSIS AT 00Z DEPICTS THAT THE CONVECTION IS ANCHORED TO A
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT ORIENTED WSW-ENE ACROSS THE SRN FL
PENINSULA. ELY INFLOW OF 20-25 KT WITHIN THE 925-850-MB LAYER PER
MIAMI 00Z RAOB WILL OPPOSE THE WLY COMPONENT OF FLOW DEEPER IN THE
CLOUD-BEARING LAYER TO LIMIT STORM MOTION. MEANWHILE...A
CONVECTIVELY INDUCED MCV WITHIN THE 3-6-KM-LAYER /PER KEY WEST
WSR-88D DATA/ WILL EXPERIENCE LITTLE STEERING FLOW PER VWP
DATA...THUS PROVIDING QUASI-STATIONARY FORCING FOR REGENERATIVE
CONVECTION. THESE FACTORS WILL YIELD LITTLE STORM MOTION...WITH
PERSISTENT HEAVY RAIN OVER MULTIPLE HOURS POSSIBLE. WITH THE 00Z
MIAMI RAOB INDICATING A 4.5-KM DEEP...SATURATED WARM-CLOUD
LAYER...COLLISION-COALESCENCE PROCESS WITHIN ABUNDANT DEEP-LAYER
MOISTURE /PW VALUE OF 2.23 INCHES/ WILL SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL RATES
OF 2-4 IN/HR. IF THE STORM IS ABLE TO DEEPEN AND EXPERIENCE STRONGER
SWLY FLOW WITHIN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS...IT WOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT
NEWD TOWARD DOWNTOWN MIAMI AND MIAMI BEACH...MAINLY AFTER 0130Z.
WHILE CONVECTION MAY OCCASIONALLY EXHIBIT A MID-LEVEL
CIRCULATION...WEAK LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WEAK LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR WILL GREATLY MITIGATE THE SVR POTENTIAL.
..COHEN.. 10/31/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MFL...
LAT...LON 25428017 25458042 25608056 25778051 25868030 25788012
25578008 25428017
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