SWODY1
SPC AC 281256
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0656 AM CST MON NOV 28 2011
VALID 281300Z - 291200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
THE MAIN BELT OF THE WLYS WILL REMAIN DISPLACED RELATIVELY FAR NORTH
FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR ACROSS SRN AND CNTRL CANADA. THE WLYS
WILL...HOWEVER...BEGIN TO EDGE SWD THIS PERIOD AS TWO IMPULSES...ONE
OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND THE OTHER OVER THE GRT
BASIN...CONTINUE GENERALLY ESE AND FLATTEN RIDGE OVER THE RCKYS AND
PLNS. IN RESPONSE...DEEP UPR LOW NOW OVER MS SHOULD BEGIN TO
ACCELERATE ENEWD. THE SYSTEM SHOULD REACH MIDDLE OR ERN TN BY 12Z
TUE.
AS THE UPR SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE...THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW NOW OVER N
GA SHOULD REFORM NWD ACROSS ERN TN/ERN KY LATER TODAY...AND INTO ERN
OH/WRN WV EARLY TUE AS TRAILING FRONTAL SYSTEM BEGINS TO OCCLUDE.
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PROGRESS STEADILY ENE ACROSS GA...WRN SC...AND
MUCH OF THE FL PENINSULA TODAY...AND THROUGH ERN SC/NC TNGT/EARLY
TUE. THE TRIPLE POINT...MEANWHILE...SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY NE FROM
SRN/CNTRL GA DURING THE AFTN TO THE NC CSTL PLN BY 12Z TUE. THE
WARM FRONT LIKELY REMAIN WILL DIFFUSE GIVEN THE INCREASINGLY
NEGATIVE TILT OF THE UPR SYSTEM...AND THE MILD ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS
OVER THE REGION.
...S ATLANTIC CST TODAY/TNGT...
SLY FLOW STRENGTHEN AND DEEPEN AHEAD OF COLD FRONT OVER THE S
ATLANTIC CSTL PLNS TODAY AS INLAND SFC LOW DEEPENS AND UPR SYSTEM
BEGINS TO ACCELERATE ENEWD. SUSTAINED S TO SELY NEAR-SFC FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVECT LOW LVL MOISTURE INTO REGION...WITH SFC DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOW TO MID 6OS EXPECTED OVER ERN GA...MUCH OF SC AND SRN NC
BY LATE IN THE DAY. SATELLITE-DERIVED PW DATA AND SFC OBS DO
NOT...HOWEVER...SHOW THE PRESENCE OF APPRECIABLY MORE MOIST AIR
UPSTREAM TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION. WITH THE UPR SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED COOLING/ASCENT REMAINING WELL TO THE N AND W...MID LVL
LAPSE RATES WILL BE VERY WEAK. AS A RESULT...DIURNAL
DESTABILIZATION WILL BE MINIMAL AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...WITH MEAGER
BUOYANCY. WHILE A BAND OF FORCED CONVECTION APPEARS LIKELY ALONG
THE COLD FRONT...LITTLE IF ANY INLAND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED. A FEW
SHOWERS/POSSIBLE STORMS ALSO MAY FORM IN DEVELOPING LOW LVL
CONFLUENCE AXIS AHEAD OF FRONT.
NEVERTHELESS...DESPITE RELATIVELY WEAK AND SHALLOW NATURE OF
THE UPDRAFTS...CONSIDERABLE LOW LVL AND DEEP SHEAR WILL
EXIST...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT. THIS SETUP MAY YIELD A
FEW SHOWERS/WEAK STORMS WITH LOW LVL ROTATION AND A THREAT FOR
AN ISOLD/BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO...OR PERHAPS AN ISOLD DMGG WIND
GUST. THIS POTENTIAL SHOULD BE GREATEST THIS AFTN THROUGH MID TO
LATE EVE ACROSS FAR SE GA...SRN/ERN SC...AND POSSIBLY SRN NC.
..CORFIDI/GUYER.. 11/28/2011
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