SWODY1
SPC AC 281943
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0143 PM CST MON NOV 28 2011
VALID 282000Z - 291200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
AT MID AFTERNOON...SURFACE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED IN ERN
TN AND SHOULD LIFT SLOWLY NWD THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SPEED MAX ROTATE AROUND THE ERN SIDE OF NRN MS
CLOSED LOW. A TRAILING COLD FRONT ARCED SEWD FROM THE LOW AND WAS
MOVING ENEWD ACROSS FAR ERN GA/SC/NC. PER EARLIER DISCUSSION...
DESPITE 60+ DEGREE DEWPOINTS...VERY POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
LIMIT THUNDERSTORM AND SEVERE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. HOWEVER ...40-50
KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND 100-200 J/KG 1KM SRH MAY SUPPORT AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WITH MID LEVEL ROTATION. SHOULD AN ISOLATED
STRONGER UPDRAFT DEVELOP...A BRIEF TORNADO OR WIND GUST WOULD BE
POSSIBLE AND HAVE MAINTAINED VERY LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES.
..IMY.. 11/28/2011
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1004 AM CST MON NOV 28 2011/
...SE ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...
A SURFACE LOW INVOF N GA/SE TN WILL DEVELOP NWWD IN RESPONSE TO A
PRONOUNCED SPEED MAX WHICH WILL ROTATE NWD AROUND THE ERN PERIPHERY
OF A DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER THE MID SOUTH. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE
FORMATION OF AN OCCLUDED CYCLONE OVER TN/KY OVERNIGHT. S/SE OF THE
LOW...A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EWD ACROSS FL/GA/SC THROUGH TONIGHT.
A BAND OF ASCENT WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG THE COLD FRONT...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED CONVECTION.
DESPITE BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-MID 60S INTO SE GA/SRN
SC AND UPPER 60S ACROSS FL...REGIONAL 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOWED POOR
LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND ONLY LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR DESTABILIZATION
TODAY IN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. THE MORE PROBABLE AREA FOR
DEEPER SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY AND LIGHTNING PRODUCTION WILL BE
ALONG THE SE GA/SC COASTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
TONIGHT...WITH SHALLOWER BUOYANCY EXPECTED FARTHER INLAND ALONG THE
FRONT. LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT
FOR BOWING SEGMENTS AND STORM-SCALE ROTATION...THOUGH THE RISKS FOR
DAMAGING WINDS AND A TORNADO WILL BE LIMITED BY THE WEAK
INSTABILITY.
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