SWODY1
SPC AC 130053
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0653 PM CST SAT NOV 12 2011
VALID 130100Z - 131200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
IN MID-UPPER LEVELS...BROAD BELT OF CYCLONIC FLOW FCST TO DOMINATE
MUCH OF CENTRAL/NRN CONUS...AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER NRN UT AND
WRN WY PIVOTS EWD ACROSS CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO NEAR NEB/IA BORDER.
ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL WAA WILL BE WIDESPREAD FROM CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH
GREAT LAKES...MOISTURE WILL REMAIN INADEQUATE FOR GEN THUNDER
THREAT.
LONG-LIVED/DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL
IMAGERY OFFSHORE SRN CA AND NRN BAJA -- IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY
EWD THROUGH 12Z. NERN PORTIONS OF THIS CIRCULATION WILL MOVE ASHORE
DURING LAST FEW HOURS OF PERIOD.
...AZ BORDERLANDS...
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER THREAT...ALREADY APPARENT OVER NRN GULF OF CA
AND NWRN SONORA...TO SPREAD ACROSS BORDER BEFORE END OF
PERIOD...APPEARS TO HAVE INCREASED ENOUGH FOR A SMALL GEN THUNDER
OUTLOOK. SFC DEW POINT AT NYL HAS GONE UP 8 DEG IN PAST TWO HOURS
AMIDST STG LOW-LEVEL THETAE ADVECTION AHEAD OF DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE.
AIR MASS FROM THERE EWD OVER BORDER REGION OF SWRN/S-CENTRAL AZ
SHOULD MOISTEN SIMILARLY THROUGH REMAINDER OVERNIGHT HOURS...HELPING
TO TEMPER NOCTURNAL DIABATIC SFC COOLING. RUC SOUNDINGS AND
MODIFIED SOUNDINGS FROM ETA-KF INDICATE MUCAPE 100-400 J/KG
DEVELOPING AFTER 06Z FOR SFC TEMPS UPPER 50S AND DEW POINTS LOW 50S
F...WHICH DOES APPEAR INCREASINGLY PROBABLE.
..EDWARDS.. 11/13/2011
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