SWODY1
SPC AC 210055
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0655 PM CST SUN NOV 20 2011
VALID 210100Z - 211200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS FAR NERN TX...ERN OK AND
WRN AR...
...TX/OK/AR AREA...
DEEP SWLY FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS FROM NRN MEXICO NEWD ACROSS THE
REGION. ALTHOUGH WV IMAGERY SUGGESTS WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
WERE TRACKING THROUGH THIS FLOW...HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
NEUTRAL OR EVEN RISE SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE SWRN STATES. AT 00Z...A SURFACE FRONT STRETCHED ROUGHLY
NEAR A ARG-RUE-ACT-FST LINE AND EVENING SOUNDINGS SHOWED THE DEPTH
OF THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WAS ONLY AROUND 50 MB.
EARLIER HEATING AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S HAD RESULTED IN
MODERATE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WHILE SLY WINDS WITHIN AND
ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WERE RESULTING IN WEAK CONVERGENCE AND LIFT
NEAR THE SURFACE FRONT...THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL FORCING WAS
OCCURRING NORTH OF THE FRONT...AS WARMER AND MORE UNSTABLE PARCELS
WERE BEING LIFTED ABOVE THE SHALLOW COLD AIR. WHILE AN ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE STORM IS STILL POSSIBLE NEAR THE BOUNDARY...THE
THREAT WILL DECREASE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS AND BECOMES LESS
UNSTABLE. THE LIFTING NORTH OF THE FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN MORE
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE FRONT. WITH 700-500 MB LAPSE
RATES NEAR 7C/KM AND MUCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG...SEVERE HAIL APPEARS
TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND ISENTROPIC LIFTING WILL ALSO RESULT IN
OTHER STORMS ACROSS NRN TX INTO CENTRAL OK WITH HAIL ALSO
POSSIBLE...BUT THE THREAT SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED THAN FARTHER EAST.
..IMY.. 11/21/2011
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