SWODY1
SPC AC 220559
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1159 PM CST MON NOV 21 2011
VALID 221200Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE GULF COASTAL STATES
NEWD INTO THE TN AND LOWER OH VALLEYS...
...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED IN THE SRN PLAINS...IS
FORECAST TO SHIFT RAPIDLY ENEWD THROUGH THIS PERIOD...WITH THE
TROUGH AXIS EXPECTED TO BE SITUATED FROM ERN OH SWD INTO GA BY EARLY
WED MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...A SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT
MOVES FROM SERN MO NEWD INTO ERN PA...WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING
SWWD FROM THE LOW.
...SERN TX/LOWER MS VALLEY...
A LINE OF STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED WEST OF THE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL TX.
THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EWD OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD BECOME
ALIGNED WITH THE FRONT. THEREAFTER...THE STORMS SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT THROUGH SERN TX/LA LA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. WIND FIELDS
WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORMS...EVEN MID LEVEL
ROTATION...THOUGH WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY INHIBIT UPDRAFT
STRENGTH. IN ANY CASE...THE LINEAR NATURE OF THE STORMS COMBINED
WITH THE RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND STRONG WIND FIELDS
SUGGESTS WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE UNTIL THE STORMS PASS THROUGH
THE AREA DURING THE MORNING.
...CENTRAL GULF STATES NWD INTO THE TN AND LOWER OH VALLEYS...
THE BEST FORCING AND STRONGEST WIND FIELDS WILL GENERALLY BE LOCATED
FROM TN NWD...WHILE THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY...MLCAPES TO 1000 J/KG
ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH OF TN. WHILE THIS COMBINATION IS NOT IDEAL
FOR A MORE ROBUST SEVERE OUTBREAK...THE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
SUPPORT A THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS A LARGE AREA AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH/FRONT. STRONG LINEAR FORCING FAVORS A LINE
OF STORMS EITHER INTENSIFYING OR REDEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT BY
MIDDAY. THE FAST PACE OF THE UPPER SYSTEM SUPPORT THIS LINEAR SYSTEM
MOVING EWD AT 35-40 KT. THE LINEAR SYSTEM PLUS STRONG ENVIRONMENTAL
WIND PROFILES INDICATE WIND DAMAGE SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT...WITH
EMBEDDED BOWS/LEWPS. THE GREATEST WIND THREAT IS EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTION OF TN/MS AND AL...WHERE THE GREATEST INSTABILITY AND
STRONGER FORCING OVERLAP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE LINEAR
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD EWD INTO GA/WRN SC DURING THE
EVENING...THOUGH THE WIND THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH
WEAKENING INSTABILITY.
THE STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGESTS A
COUPLE OF TORNADOES APPEAR MOST LIKELY IN THE TN/AL/MS PORTION OF
THE SLIGHT RISK. WHILE WIND PROFILES ALSO APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES ACROSS KY...AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE
STATE...THE VERY MOIST VERTICAL SOUNDINGS AND MUCAPES AOB 200 J/KG
SUGGEST THE TORNADO THREAT IS LOW.
...NC...
SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING INTO AT LEAST NC BY 12Z WED
MORNING. WIND FIELDS AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE QUITE STRONG AND
SUPPORTIVE OF AN ISOLATED WIND OR TORNADO THREAT. HOWEVER...VERY
MOIST VERTICAL SOUNDINGS AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY PRECLUDE A SLIGHT
RISK ISSUANCE ATTM.
..IMY/LEITMAN.. 11/22/2011
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment