SWODY1
SPC AC 290559
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1159 PM CST MON NOV 28 2011
VALID 291200Z - 301200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
DEEP UPPER LOW INITIALLY PROGGED OVER THE MID SOUTH REGION WILL
SHIFT NNEWD WITH TIME...REACHING THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE...A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
ADVANCE SEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S./SRN ROCKIES IN CYCLONIC FLOW ON
WRN FRINGES OF THE UPPER LOW. FINALLY...A SECOND SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
MOVING SEWD OUT OF THE NERN PACIFIC SHOULD CROSS INTO WRN CANADA/THE
PAC NW WITH TIME.
AT THE SURFACE...AN OCCLUDED LOW IS FORECAST TO DRIFT NWD FROM THE
MID/UPPER OH VALLEY ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES INTO SRN ONTARIO...WITH
THE TRIPLE POINT PROGGED TO SHIFT NEWD FROM ERN VA ROUGHLY ALONG THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
...NC OUTER BANKS NWD ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND
COASTAL REGIONS...
SELY/ESELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL STATES FROM NC
NWD -- WITHIN THE NERN QUADRANT OF THE SURFACE LOW -- WILL RESULT IN
ELEVATED MOISTENING/MEAGER DESTABILIZATION ATOP A SURFACE-BASED
STABLE LAYER. WITH THIS WARM ADVECTION REGIME ALSO DRIVING
UVV...CONVECTION IS PROGGED ACROSS THIS REGION -- SHIFTING NWD FROM
THE NC OUTER BANKS EARLY ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...AND THEN ACROSS COASTAL NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE SECOND
HALF OF THE PERIOD. WHILE LITTLE LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED...A FEW
EMBEDDED STRIKES MAY OCCUR NEAR THE COAST. IN ANY
CASE...ELEVATED/WEAK CAPE SUGGESTS NEGLIGIBLE SEVERE POTENTIAL.
..GOSS.. 11/29/2011
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