SWODY1
SPC AC 110454
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1054 PM CST THU NOV 10 2011
VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
PRONOUNCED SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN HAS DEVELOPED IN MID-UPPER LEVELS OVER
NERN PAC...AS LARGE AND NEARLY CUT-OFF CYCLONE DRIFTS SWD OFFSHORE
CA COAST. THIS VORTEX SHOULD TURN SEWD TO SSEWD AND WEAKEN SLOWLY
THROUGH PERIOD...WHILE REMAINING OFFSHORE SRN CA. MEANWHILE...STG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER ERN
GULF OF AK APCHG QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS -- IS EXPECTED TO DIG SEWD
OVER BC. PERTURBATION SHOULD REACH NRN ROCKIES AND ERN ORE BY
12/12Z.
AT SFC...LARGE/CONTINENETAL ANTICYCLONE OVER S-CENTRAL/SERN
CONUS...LEFT BEHIND ATLANTIC COLD FRONT...WILL PRECLUDE SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
FROM INTERMOUNTAIN W EWD ACROSS CENTRAL-ERN STATES.
...CA COAST...
MRGL THUNDER OTLK EVIDENT IN ASSOCIATION WITH OFFSHORE LOW. STG
MID-UPPER DIFLUENCE AND GLANCING EPISODES OF DCVA SHOULD
CHARACTERIZE FAR-NERN SEMICIRCLE OF CYCLONIC GYRE THROUGH
PERIOD...AND MAY AFFECT COASTAL AREAS OF CENTRAL/SRN CA. FCST
SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK MUCAPE -- GENERALLY AOB 100 J/KG -- DEVELOPING
ABOVE MARINE LAYER IN RESPONSE TO COMBINATION OF MID-UPPER LEVEL
ASCENT/COOLING AND LOW-LEVEL WAA CONVEYOR.
...GREAT LAKES...
VERY BRIEF/ISOLATED LTG STRIKES CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER AND IN
IMMEDIATE LEE OF GREAT LAKES WITH RESPECT TO SFC-850 MB FLOW...AS
HEAT FLUXES FROM RELATIVELY WARM WATER CONTRIBUTE TO VERY WEAK
SBCAPE. HOWEVER...RISK APPEARS TOO SMALL/ISOLATED ATTM FOR GEN
THUNDER AREAS.
..EDWARDS/BOTHWELL.. 11/11/2011
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