SWODY1
SPC AC 021936
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0236 PM CDT WED NOV 02 2011
VALID 022000Z - 031200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...ERN OK...FAR SERN KS/SWRN MO/NWRN AR...
PREVIOUS FORECAST ON TRACK WITH A LIMITED RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. HAVE SHIFTED THE 5 PERCENT
DAMAGING WIND PROBABILITY SLIGHTLY EWD WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ARE WARMER ON THE ERN FRINGE OF AN EXPANSIVE STRATUS DECK OVER A
LARGE PORTION OF KS/OK. SHOWERS FORMING ALONG COLD FRONT FROM OSAGE
TO GRADY COUNTY OK WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS
DEVELOPING BY 22-00Z AS THE FRONT CONTINUES EWD. VERY WEAK
INSTABILITY WILL PRECLUDE A MORE SUBSTANTIAL THREAT...BUT LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS SHOULD OCCUR GIVEN STRONG NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY
WIND PROFILES ALONG THE FRONT.
..GRAMS.. 11/02/2011
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT WED NOV 02 2011/
...SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EWD FROM THE HIGH
PLAINS TO MO/AR OVERNIGHT...AS AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE
DEVELOPS ENEWD FROM OK TO MO. SCATTERED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ONGOING IN THE ZONE OF ASCENT IMMEDIATELY N OF A SURFACE FRONT FROM
NE KS/SE NEB NEWD ACROSS IA/SRN WI...IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH 100-400
J/KG MUCAPE BASED NEAR 700 MB. THIS BAND OF ELEVATED CONVECTION IS
LIKELY NEAR PEAK AND IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE GRADUALLY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN NWD FROM
TX/OK WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY
THIS AFTERNOON FROM E/NE OK INTO SE KS...IMMEDIATELY IN ADVANCE OF
THE SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT. STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG THE
FRONT AND IN ADVANCE OF THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH WILL SUPPORT THE
FORMATION OF A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON FROM ERN
OK INTO SE KS...AND THE STORMS WILL SPREAD EWD OVERNIGHT. THOUGH
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN WEAK...STRENGTHENING WIND PROFILES WILL
SUPPORT A LOW RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH THE
SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION.
OTHERWISE...CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEPER CONVECTION WITH LIGHTNING ALONG
THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT...AS IT APPROACHES THE TX COAST.
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment