SWODY1
SPC AC 121244
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0644 AM CST SAT NOV 12 2011
VALID 121300Z - 131200Z
...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST...
NRN MEMBER OF PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN IN THE WEST...NOW
ENTERING ID...WILL CONTINUE SE INTO WY LATER TODAY...BEFORE TURNING
MORE E INTO ACROSS NEB TNGT/EARLY SUN. AT THE SAME TIME...THE SRN
MEMBER /CLOSED LOW OFF THE SRN CA CST/ SHOULD CONTINUE GENERALLY ESE
THROUGH THE PERIOD...NEARING THE NRN BAJA CST BY 12Z SUN. GRADUALLY
BACKING ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL DOWNSTREAM FROM THESE SYSTEMS ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS.
DRY LOW LVL AIR IN WAKE OF TROUGH THAT EXITED THE NORTHEAST U.S. ON
FRI WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CNTRL AND ERN STATES TODAY.
THUS...THUNDER RISK APPEARS MINIMAL AHEAD OF UPR SYSTEM CROSSING NRN
PARTS OF THE RCKYS AND PLNS. MEANWHILE...OFFSHORE TRACK OF PACIFIC
UPR LOW SUGGESTS THAT ANY SUBSTANTIAL AREA OF ASSOCIATED THUNDER
WILL AT BEST BARELY GRAZE THE CSTL WATERS OF SRN CA. A LOW
PROBABILITY FOR ISOLD STMS MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE PERIOD OVER THE
LWR CO VLY OF SRN CA/AZ. OVERALL...HOWEVER...TSTM PROBABILITIES
SEEM TOO LOW TO WARRANT THE ADDITION OF A CATEGORICAL FCST AREA.
..CORFIDI/ROGERS.. 11/12/2011
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