SWODY1
SPC AC 071949
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0149 PM CST MON NOV 07 2011
VALID 072000Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL/SRN
PLAINS...
THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR AND THE
FORECAST WARRANTS NO APPRECIABLE CHANGES. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE OUTLOOK PROBABILITIES ON THE NWRN FRINGE OF
THE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK ACROSS THE ERN TX PANHANDLE NEWD THROUGH
S-CNTRL KS.
..SMITH/DARROW.. 11/07/2011
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CST MON NOV 07 2011/
...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...
CHANGES TO PREVIOUS OUTLOOK:
1/ EXPAND LOW TORNADO/SVR WIND PROBABILITIES NEWD INTO ERN KS.
2/ NARROW WIDTH OF SVR RISKS BY TRIMMING ON WRN/ERN FRINGES.
WATER VAPOR SHOWS THAT THE UPR LOW HAS TURNED E OVER AZ/NRN MEXICO
AND IS EXPECTED TO MIGRATE ENE INTO THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS TONIGHT.
16Z SFC ANALYSIS PLACES A SFC LOW OVER THE WCNTRL TX WITH A FRONT
ENE INTO NWRN/NCNTRL OK AND SERN KS. CONSIDERABLE WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION WILL DRIVE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION/TSTMS POLEWARD OF THE
FRONT MUCH OF THE DAY. THIS MAY IMPEDE NWD TRANSLATION OF THE
FRONT...ESPECIALLY IN NCNTRL OK AND ERN KS. A NWWD MOVEMENT IS
EXPECTED...HOWEVER...OVER THE SERN TX PNHDL AND WCNTRL OK AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW DEVELOPS TOWARD SWRN OK LATER THIS AFTN.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...CHARACTERIZED BY LWR-MID 60S SFC DEW
POINTS...HAVE BEEN TRANSPORTED NWWD TO THE FRONT. ALTHOUGH THERE
WILL BE LINGERING CONCERNS FOR MITIGATED DESTABILIZATION FROM NCNTRL
OK INTO KS OWING TO CLOUDS/PCPN THIS AFTN...LATE MORNING VISIBLE
IMAGERY SHOWS CLEARING MOVING INTO W TX AND SWRN OK.
HERE...STRONGEST DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR WITH MLCAPES TO
2000-2500 J/KG BY LATE AFTN. FARTHER NE...500-1500 J/KG MLCAPES ARE
EXPECTED.
AS INCREASING ASCENT/ENHANCED MOISTENING/COOLING OF THE COLUMN
COMMENCES WITH APPROACH OF THE UPR TROUGH...WDLY SCTD TSTMS WILL
FORM NEAR A TRIPLE POINT/N EDGE OF STEEP LLVL LAPSE RATES ALONG THE
TX PNHDL/WRN OK BORDER SWWD INTO THE SERN ROLLING PLAINS OF TX IN
THE 22-23Z TIME FRAME. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 50-55 KTS AND MAGNITUDE
OF MID-LVL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST SUPERCELL STORM MODE WILL BE LIKELY
WITH VERY LARGE HAIL. 0-1KM SRH VALUES WILL BE SUBSTANTIAL...250+
M2/S2...AND TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH INITIAL
ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY FROM THE ERN TX PNHDL/SE ROLLING PLAINS INTO
SWRN/WCNTRL OK /00-03Z/.
ACTIVITY WILL EXPAND...BOTH NE AND SW INTO ERN KS AND NW/WCNTRL TX
LATER THIS EVENING. INCREASING SLAB ASCENT SUGGESTS THAT A
TRANSITION CHIEFLY INTO A LINEAR MODE WITH EMBEDDED ROTATING CELLS
WILL TAKE PLACE OVERNIGHT AS ACTIVITY PROGRESSES INTO ERN KS...CNTRL
OK AND CNTRL/NCNTRL TX. DMGG WIND GUSTS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLD
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE MOST OF THE NIGHT.
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment