SWODY1
SPC AC 271242
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0642 AM CST SUN NOV 27 2011
VALID 271300Z - 281200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST...
AMPLIFIED...SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL PERSIST THIS PERIOD.
FULL LATITUDE TROUGH NOW EXTENDING FROM THE UPR GRT LKS TO E TX WILL
EDGE SLOWLY E THROUGH MON AS SRN PART EVOLVES INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER
AR. MEANWHILE...UPSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE GRT BASIN/RCKYS SHOULD
PIVOT E/SE INTO THE PLNS...MAINTAINING DRY CONDITIONS OVER MOST OF
THE WRN HALF OF THE U.S.
AT THE SFC...NRN PART OF COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CNTRL U.S.
TROUGH LIKELY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE STEADILY E/NE ACROSS THE OH VLY.
THE SRN PART OF THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DECELERATE AS DEVELOPMENT
OF MID/UPR LVL LOW ENCOURAGES CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER
ERN AL/WRN GA TNGT AND EARLY MON.
A BAND OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTION/ISOLD TSTMS WILL MOVE SLOWLY
E ACROSS AL AND THE WRN FL PANHANDLE TODAY...AND INTO GA AND THE ERN
FL PANHANDLE TNGT/EARLY MON. WHILE THE CLOUD LAYER FLOW WILL REMAIN
SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED AND SUSTAINED STORMS...WEAK BUOYANCY
SUGGESTS THAT THUNDER POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO SRN AL/THE
FL PANHANDLE. AN ISOLD STRONG GUST...OR PERHAPS A BRIEF/WEAK
TORNADO/WATERSPOUT...CANNOT ENTIRELY BE DISCOUNTED...ESPECIALLY FROM
NOW THROUGH EARLY EVE FROM MOBILE BAY EWD TO NEAR PANAMA
CITY/APALACHICOLA. BUT ABSENCE OF STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT OR AN
APPRECIABLE INCREASE IN LOW LVL MOISTURE SUGGEST THAT ANY SVR THREAT
WILL REMAIN VERY LIMITED.
..CORFIDI/LEITMAN.. 11/27/2011
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