Thursday, November 10, 2011

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 110059
SWODY1
SPC AC 110057

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0657 PM CST THU NOV 10 2011

VALID 110100Z - 111200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-AIR PATTERN EVIDENT OVER CONUS...DOMINATED BY
RIDGING FROM GULF OF CA TO INTERIOR NW...AND TROUGHING FROM UPPER
GREAT LAKES TO NRN GULF. STG SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN
MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY FROM LOWER MI SWD ACROSS ERN PORTIONS TN/KY
-- SHOULD MOVE EWD TO WRN NY...ERN/CENTRAL PA...AND VA/NC...BY END
OF PERIOD.

...GREAT LAKES...
BUOYANCY WAS BARELY SUPPORTIVE TO START WITH...I.E. MUCAPE LESS THAN
100 J/KG...AND LAPSE RATES SHOULD DIMINISH FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF
MID-UPPER TROUGH. IN MEANTIME...A FEW MORE LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE
POSSIBLE WITH CONVECTION IN LEE OF LE OVER WRN NY...AND CENTRAL/ERN
LE.

...COASTAL NEW ENGLAND...
MODIFIED 00Z CHH RAOB AND ACCORDINGLY ADJUSTED FCST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE VERY WEAK AND INSUFFICIENTLY DEEP CAPE...WITHIN ELEVATED
WARM CONVEYOR...TO SUPPORT MORE THAN VERY BRIEF/ISOLATED LTG
OCCURRENCE. THEREFORE...WHILE NON-ZERO...THUNDER POTENTIAL APPEARS
TOO LOW TO MAINTAIN GEN TSTM AREA.

..EDWARDS.. 11/11/2011

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