SWODY1
SPC AC 291253
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0653 AM CST TUE NOV 29 2011
VALID 291300Z - 301200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
CURRENT CLOSED/SLOW MOVING CYCLONE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD/INTERACT
WITH NORTHERN TIER WESTERLIES AS IT SPREADS TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. IN LOOSE ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM...A
LIMITED TSTM POTENTIAL WILL EXIST TODAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD...AND PERHAPS THE MIDWEST. ELSEWHERE...A SECONDARY
UPPER TROUGH WILL STEADILY MOVE EASTWARD/INLAND OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...BUT ANY TSTM POTENTIAL SEEMS QUITE LIMITED.
...COASTAL PORTIONS OF NC/MID-ATLANTIC STATES/NEW ENGLAND...
AMID A WARM ADVECTION REGIME/AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD ADVANCING COLD
FRONT...ELEVATED MOISTENING/MEAGER DESTABILIZATION WILL CONTINUE TO
OCCUR ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD ATOP A RELATIVELY STABLE BOUNDARY
LAYER. WHILE LITTLE LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED WITHIN A LOW
PROBABILITY/COVERAGE SCENARIO...A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES COULD OCCUR
IN COASTAL AREAS/OFFSHORE...ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES TODAY AND
THEN COASTAL NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. IN SPITE OF A STRONG DEEP LAYER
WIND FIELD...ELEVATED/WEAK CAPE WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE ANY SEVERE
POTENTIAL DURING THE PERIOD.
...MIDWEST...
ATOP A COLD NEAR/SUB-FREEZING BOUNDARY LAYER...SUFFICIENT ELEVATED
INSTABILITY/ASSOCIATED CHARGE SEPARATION MAY EXIST TODAY FOR A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES WITHIN A CORRIDOR ACROSS SOUTHERN IL NORTHEASTWARD
TO INDIANA/NORTHWEST OH AND/OR LOWER MI. HOWEVER...ANY SUCH
LIGHTNING SHOULD REMAIN QUITE LOCALIZED/SPORADIC...AND 10 PERCENT
TSTM PROBABILITIES DO NOT APPEAR WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.
..GUYER.. 11/29/2011
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