SWODY1
SPC AC 281604
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1004 AM CST MON NOV 28 2011
VALID 281630Z - 291200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SE ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...
A SURFACE LOW INVOF N GA/SE TN WILL DEVELOP NWWD IN RESPONSE TO A
PRONOUNCED SPEED MAX WHICH WILL ROTATE NWD AROUND THE ERN PERIPHERY
OF A DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER THE MID SOUTH. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE
FORMATION OF AN OCCLUDED CYCLONE OVER TN/KY OVERNIGHT. S/SE OF THE
LOW...A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EWD ACROSS FL/GA/SC THROUGH TONIGHT.
A BAND OF ASCENT WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG THE COLD FRONT...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED CONVECTION.
DESPITE BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-MID 60S INTO SE GA/SRN
SC AND UPPER 60S ACROSS FL...REGIONAL 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOWED POOR
LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND ONLY LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR DESTABILIZATION
TODAY IN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. THE MORE PROBABLE AREA FOR
DEEPER SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY AND LIGHTNING PRODUCTION WILL BE
ALONG THE SE GA/SC COASTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
TONIGHT...WITH SHALLOWER BUOYANCY EXPECTED FARTHER INLAND ALONG THE
FRONT. LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT
FOR BOWING SEGMENTS AND STORM-SCALE ROTATION...THOUGH THE RISKS FOR
DAMAGING WINDS AND A TORNADO WILL BE LIMITED BY THE WEAK
INSTABILITY.
..THOMPSON/ROGERS.. 11/28/2011
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