SWODY2
SPC AC 120659
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 AM CST SAT NOV 12 2011
VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW INITIALLY OFF THE BAJA CA COAST IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
AND SHIFT QUICKLY EWD ACROSS THE SWRN U.S. THIS PERIOD...WITH SOME
PHASING EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITH A SECOND TROUGH IN THE NRN BRANCH OF
THE SPLIT FLOW REGIME.
AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT INITIALLY MOVING ACROSS THE NRN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN/BECOME MORE ILL-DEFINED WITH
TIME. HOWEVER...A WEAK FRONTAL LOW EVOLVING ON THE SRN FRINGE OF
THE WEAKENING FRONT INVOF OK LATE IN THE PERIOD WILL AID IN NWD
TRANSPORT OF WARMER/MORE MOIST AIRMASS -- SUPPORTING WEAK CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE S CENTRAL CONUS.
...SRN PLAINS/OZARKS/MID MS AND LOWER OH VALLEY REGION...
LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING/WEAK DESTABILIZATION IS FORECAST AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH -- WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS QG
FORCING INCREASES INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD. SOME INCREASE
IN LIGHTNING MAY OCCUR LATE IN THE PERIOD ACROSS THE OZARKS AND INTO
THE MID MS/LOWER OH VALLEYS...AS ENHANCED WARM ADVECTION EVOLVES
WITH A DEVELOPING NOCTURNAL SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET.
...SRN AZ EWD TO FAR W TX...
COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT/STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SPREADING EWD
WITH TIME IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE UPPER FEATURE WILL SUPPORT
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. CONVECTION
SHOULD INITIALLY BE CONFINED TO SRN AZ...BUT WILL SPREAD INTO SRN NM
AND FAR W TX FROM AFTERNOON ONWARD.
..GOSS.. 11/12/2011
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