SWODY2
SPC AC 140659
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 AM CST MON NOV 14 2011
VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN TX EWD INTO SERN MS...
...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGHING WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CONUS THIS
PERIOD. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FEATURE WITH RESPECT TO THE CONVECTIVE
FORECAST WILL BE A SMALLER-SCALE LOW/TROUGH PROGGED TO CROSS TX
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND THEN SHIFT ACROSS THE LOWER AND MID MS/TN
VALLEYS THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD.
AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
EARLY...WITH TRAILING PORTIONS OF THE BOUNDARY PROGGED TO MOVE
SLOWLY SEWD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL STATES THROUGH
16/12Z. A WEAK FRONTAL WAVE -- ASSOCIATED WITH THE PROGRESSING
SMALL-SCALE UPPER FEATURE -- SHOULD SHIFT ENEWD ACROSS THE S CENTRAL
AND SERN CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
...SERN TX EWD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...
FORECAST REMAINS COMPLICATED DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT
TO EVOLUTION/PROGRESSION OF THE SMALL-SCALE FEATURE CROSSING THE S
CENTRAL CONUS. THE GFS REMAINS ABOUT 6 HOURS SLOWER THAN THE NAM IN
HANDLING THE UPPER FEATURE...AND AS A RESULT THE AREA OF PRIMARY
AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WOULD EXIST ACROSS E TX DURING THE
AFTERNOON PER GFS FORECASTS AS OPPOSED TO THE LA/SRN MS VICINITY
ACCORDING TO THE NAM.
AS A RESULT...WILL INTRODUCE A FAIRLY BROAD SLIGHT RISK -- ALONG AND
S OF THE TRACK OF THE UPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL
WAVE...WHERE COOLING ALOFT SHOULD AID IN MODEST DESTABILIZATION AND
WHERE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED. ONGOING CONVECTION EARLY
IN THE PERIOD SHOULD INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH STRONG SWLY
FLOW ALOFT PROVIDING AMPLE SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED/SEVERE STORMS. ALONG
WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINAL HAIL...A
TORNADO OR TWO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE -- PRIMARILY FROM AREAS INVOF
THE UPPER TX COAST EWD TOWARD SERN MS.
THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH SLOWLY THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT EXPECT SOME
THREAT TO LINGER INTO LATTER PORTIONS OF THE PERIOD INTO THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION.
..GOSS.. 11/14/2011
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