SWODY2
SPC AC 220602
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1202 AM CST TUE NOV 22 2011
VALID 231200Z - 241200Z
...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE UPPER-AIR PATTERN FCST THROUGH PERIOD...LEADING WITH STG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY AND
VWP/PROFILER WINDS FROM W-CENTRAL KS SSWWD ACROSS W TX. BY START OF
PERIOD...THIS PERTURBATION IS FCST TO ELONGATE WHILE REMAINING
POSITIVELY TILTED...REACHING FROM WRN UPSTATE NY SWWD DOWN
APPALACHIANS TO AL. TROUGH SHOULD MOVE OVER COASTAL SECTION OF
MID-ATLC AND CAROLINAS AROUND 24/00Z-24/03Z TIME FRAME.
MEANWHILE...SFC FRONTAL-WAVE CYCLONE...NOW DEEPENING OVER SWRN
AR...SHOULD REACH PA BY 23/12Z...OCCLUDING EARLY IN PERIOD WITH NEW
LOW FORMING NEAR CAPE COD DURING 23/18Z-23/21Z TIME FRAME. PROGS
NOW ARE IN CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH RESULTING SFC COLD FRONTAL
POSITION...FCST FROM PA LOW SWWD ACROSS WRN VA...WRN CAROLINAS AND
SWRN GA AT 23/12Z...THEN MOVING OFFSHORE AROUND 23/18Z.
...MID-ATLC REGION TO SRN ATLC COAST...
MRGL SVR THREAT...WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS AND/OR BRIEF
TORNADO...WILL CARRY OVER FROM END OF DAY-1 PERIOD...AS BAND OF
LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION MOVES EWD THROUGH ENVIRONMENT OF STG VERTICAL
SPEED SHEAR BUT VERY WEAK INSTABILITY. POTENTIAL FOR MIDDAY COASTAL
FROPA...AND POTENTIAL FOR ANTECEDENT CLOUD COVER...INDICATE LITTLE
SFC DIABATIC HEATING OF WARM SECTOR IS LIKELY PRIOR TO FROPA.
STILL...SFC TEMPS/DEW POINTS IN 60S F YIELD SUFFICIENT THETAE FOR
EFFECTIVELY SFC BASED LIFTED PARCELS...IN A FEW COASTAL-PLAIN FCST
SOUNDINGS FROM SERN VA SWWD ACROSS GA. VERY NARROW/SHORT-LIVED
PREFRONTAL CORRIDOR FARTHER N...OVER DELMARVA/MID-ATLANTIC...SHOULD
BE CHARACTERIZED BY INCREASINGLY STABLE NEAR-SFC LAYER WITH NWD
EXTENT THAT WILL REDUCE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING GUSTS. FARTHER
S...FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WILL DIMINISH WITH TIME AND WITH SRN EXTENT
OVER GA AND FL...AS STRONGEST DEEP-LAYER FORCING MOVES EVEN FARTHER
AWAY FROM REGION ACROSS MID-ATLC/NEW ENGLAND REGIONS.
..EDWARDS.. 11/22/2011
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment