SWODY2
SPC AC 051730
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT SAT NOV 05 2011
VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
WITHIN A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS...AND ON
THE HEELS OF A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS/CENTRAL CANADA...A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL DIG SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST BEFORE TURNING MORE EASTWARD
OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES THROUGH SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
SECONDARY SYSTEM...ALONG WITH A STEADY INCREASE OF MOISTURE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WILL LEAD TO INCREASING DEEP CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
CONUS. ASIDE FROM TSTM POTENTIAL /SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE/ ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO OZARKS ON SUNDAY...A FEW TSTMS MAY BE POSSIBLE AS
WELL ACROSS COASTAL CA.
...MUCH OF NORTHWEST TX/SOUTHERN OK...
AIRMASS MODIFICATION WILL STEADILY OCCUR ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO INTO TX THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH LOWER/SOME MIDDLE 60S F SURFACE
DEWPOINTS LIKELY TO BECOME INCREASINGLY ESTABLISHED BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT WITHIN A WARM SECTOR ACROSS TX INTO SOUTHERN OK.
WHILE SHOWERS/SOME TSTMS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE INCREASINGLY
MOIST WARM SECTOR...NEBULOUS LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT/RESIDUAL
WARM LAYER ALOFT MAY TEND TO LIMIT DEEP CONVECTION DIURNALLY. THE
MOST CERTAIN SCENARIO WILL BE TSTMS TO INCREASE TOWARD/ESPECIALLY
AFTER DARK IN VICINITY OF AN INCREASINGLY SHARP SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST
ORIENTED FRONTAL ZONE FROM WEST/NORTHWEST TX TO OK/OZARKS...WHERE
WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BE MAXIMIZED LATE IN THE
PERIOD/EARLY MONDAY AS THE REGION BEGINS TO BE MODESTLY INFLUENCED
BY THE SOUTHWEST STATES TROUGH. WHILE MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL
SHEAR/SRH WILL BE INCREASING VIA A NOCTURNALLY STRENGTHENING LOW
LEVEL JET...THESE STORMS WILL TEND TO BE ELEVATED AND BASED JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE. STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MUCAPE UP TO
1000-2000 J/KG...ALONG WITH WITHIN INCREASINGLY STRONG DEEP LAYER
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...MAY PROMOTE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF AT LEAST
ISOLATED/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.
..GUYER.. 11/05/2011
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