SWODY3
SPC AC 050649
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0149 AM CDT SAT NOV 05 2011
VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OK AND
TX....
..SYNOPSIS...
IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EWD FROM AZ/UT INTO THE
ERN NM/TX PANHANDLE AND BE THE PRIMARY FACTOR FOR SEVERE CONVECTION
THIS PERIOD. WHILE LATEST DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT ON OVERALL PATTERN...00Z NAM/ECMWF CYCLOGENESIS IS
SLOWER...AS IS THE EWD MOTION OF THE DEVELOPING LOW...AS COMPARED TO
THE 00Z GFS. LATEST NAM/ECMWF ARE PREFERRED GIVEN THAT THE STRONGER
FORCING/JET MAX WILL BE LOCATED ON THE SRN BASE OF THE TROUGH UNTIL
THE END OF THE PERIOD. THEREFORE BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...AT THE
SURFACE...EXPECT WEAKENING FRONT TO EXTEND FROM NEAR CNU SWWD TO A
WEAK SURFACE LOW NEAR CDS...WITH A DRYLINE STRETCHING SWD FROM THE
LOW ACROSS WRN TX. SURFACE LOW/FRONT/DRYLINE SHOULD EDGE ONLY SLOWLY
EWD OVERNIGHT.
...TX/OK...
STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE....BETWEEN THE POLAR AND SUBTROPICAL
JETS...IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS AND CONVECTION
ACROSS THE REGION MUCH OF THE DAY...LIMITING HEATING AND CONSEQUENT
SURFACE INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...AS THE STRONGER DIFFLUENCE SHIFTS
EWD...PCPN/CLOUDS MAY DECREASE SUFFICIENTLY FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM
INTO THE 70S...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SWRN OK AND NWRN TX. THESE READINGS
COMBINED WITH 60-65 DEGREE DEWPOINTS AND STEEP MID/HIGH LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WOULD YIELD MLCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG. THIS INSTABILITY PLUS
VEERING AND STRENGTHENING WIND PROFILES WITH HEIGHT...YIELDING 50-60
KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. WHILE
LARGE HAIL WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT...THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND
20-30 KT OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR ALSO FAVOR TORNADOES. ATTM...THE
GREATEST THREAT FOR THE MORE INTENSE STORMS APPEARS TO EXIST ACROSS
SWRN OK/NWRN TX AND IS DEPICTED BY THE 30% SEVERE PROBABILITY LINE
ON THE PROBABILITY GRAPHIC. WHILE THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD PERSIST
INTO THE EVENING AS THE STORMS SPREAD NEWD INTO CENTRAL OK/NRN
TX...WEAKER INSTABILITY/LAPSE RATES SUGGESTS THE STORMS WILL NOT BE
AS INTENSE OR AS NUMEROUS AS THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP EARLIER IN THE
AFTERNOON.
..IMY.. 11/05/2011
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