SWODY3
SPC AC 140820
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0220 AM CST MON NOV 14 2011
VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
AS A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO/ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIANS EARLY
IN THE PERIOD BECOMES FULLY ABSORBED INTO THE LARGER-SCALE
TROUGH...SLOW EWD PROGRESSION OF THIS LARGER-SCALE SYSTEM WILL ALLOW
SIMILAR ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE FRONT...INITIALLY
PROGGED TO EXTEND FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WSWWD INTO TX...IS
EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE ATLANTIC AND GULF COASTS BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD...LIKELY LINGERING ONSHORE ONLY ACROSS FL BY 17/12Z. UNTIL
THEN...THIS FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
THIS PERIOD.
...THE SOUTHEAST...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST STATES AND SRN APPALACHIANS REGION ALONG THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT SHOULD INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON...AS VERY MODEST
DESTABILIZATION OF THE MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS OCCURS. WITH STRONG
FLOW ALOFT...SOME LINEAR ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTION APPEARS POSSIBLE
ALONG THE FRONT. HOWEVER...WITH NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLYS ALOFT
ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE FRONT AND ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY...SETUP
DOES NOT APPEAR TO FAVOR A MORE WIDESPREAD WIND EVENT. THUS...WILL
INTRODUCE ONLY 5% SEVERE PROBABILITY ACROSS THE AREA THIS PERIOD.
..GOSS.. 11/14/2011
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