SWODY3
SPC AC 220651
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1251 AM CST TUE NOV 22 2011
VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE UPPER-AIR PATTERN FCST...WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW
EVIDENT FROM CENTRAL KS TO W TX MOVING OFFSHORE ATLC COAST DAY-2.
STG SFC COLD FRONT WILL PRECEDE THAT FEATURE OFFSHORE...LEAVING
BEHIND EXPANSIVE CONTINENTAL ANTICYCLONE IN LOW-LEVELS THAT...IN
TURN...WILL PROHIBIT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE RETURN FOR TSTM THREAT FROM
ROCKIES EWD.
FARTHER W...STG MID-UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FCST TO DEVELOP
OVER NERN PAC...EVOLVING FROM SERIES OF CURRENTLY LOW-AMPLITUDE
SPEED/VORTICITY MAXIMA NOW EXTENDING SEWD FROM SRN BERING SEA ACROSS
ALEUTIANS TO EXTREME NRN PAC. PROGS GENERALLY ARE CONSISTENT WITH
TIMING OF THIS FEATURE...BUT DIFFER MORE AND MORE IN ITS AMPLITUDE
WITH TIME FROM EARLY DAY-3 ONWARD. BY 25/00Z...500-MB TROUGH SHOULD
EXTEND FROM SRN NV SSWWD ACROSS SRN CA AND OFFSHORE CENTRAL BAJA.
SPECTRAL REMAINS FASTER AND MORE OPEN-WAVE PROG WITH THIS
SYSTEM...REACHING AZ/NM BORDER AND ERN SONORA BY END OF
PERIOD...CLOSE TO SREF MEAN. THIS CONTRASTS WITH SLIGHTLY SLOWER
ECMWF AND STRONGLY OUTLYING AND MORE CLOSED-LOW CHARACTERISTICS OF
NAM AND SLIGHTLY SLOWER ECMWF. MEANWHILE...FASTER-MOVING NRN-STREAM
TROUGH ALSO SHOULD MOVE ASHORE PAC NW DURING 25/00Z-25/06Z TIME
FRAME...POSSIBLY BRINGING LOW-TOPPED MARITIME THUNDER POTENTIAL OVER
COASTAL AREAS.
LOW-LEVEL WAA/MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONVEYOR AHEAD OF SWRN TROUGH WILL
SUPPORT TSTM POTENTIAL OVER PORTIONS NWRN MEX...NRN FRINGE OF WHICH
MAY AFFECT BORDERLANDS OF SERN AZ. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS WILL BE TOO STABLE TO SUPPORT SVR
POTENTIAL...BENEATH MRGL ELEVATED MUCAPES AROUND 100-300 J/KG.
..EDWARDS.. 11/22/2011
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