SWODY3
SPC AC 270816
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0216 AM CST SUN NOV 27 2011
VALID 291200Z - 301200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS REASONABLY CONSISTENT WITH A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE TN VALLEY/DEEP SOUTH...BECOMING INCREASINGLY COMPACT
AS IT RAPIDLY EJECTS NEWD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS TO THE
MID-ATLANTIC. ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE SHOULD TRACK N/NEWD FROM
THE OH VALLEY ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. ATTENDANT TO THIS
LOW...AN ARCING OCCLUDED FRONT WILL PUSH NEWD ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND.
...COASTAL NC TO SRN NEW ENGLAND...
ALTHOUGH TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST WITHIN GUIDANCE...A BRIEF PERIOD
OF SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION MAY PERSIST BEYOND 12Z/TUE MORNING
ACROSS COASTAL NC AHEAD OF AN OCCLUDING COLD FRONT. HERE...LOWER 60S
SURFACE DEW POINTS WITHIN A POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD
RESULT IN VERY WEAK INSTABILITY AND MITIGATE MORE ROBUST SEVERE
POTENTIAL DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF STRONG KINEMATIC FIELDS. WILL
DEFER TO LATER OUTLOOKS FOR POSSIBLE INCLUSION OF LOW-END SEVERE
PROBABILITIES.
FARTHER N...STRONG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH SHOULD HELP YIELD MEAGER ELEVATED INSTABILITY ATOP A
NEAR-SURFACE STABLE LAYER. SPORADIC TO PERHAPS ISOLATED TSTMS MAY
DEVELOP...BUT A SEVERE THREAT IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM.
..GRAMS.. 11/27/2011
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