SWOD48
SPC AC 120956
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0356 AM CST SAT NOV 12 2011
VALID 151200Z - 201200Z
...DISCUSSION...
MODEL DIFFERENCES -- IN TERMS OF TIMING OF PREDOMINANT FEATURES --
ARE EVIDENT EARLY IN THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD...AS A WEAKENING
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSS THE ERN U.S.
THROUGH DAY 4 /TUE. 11-15/. WHILE SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL COULD
ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM...LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN MODEL TIMING COMBINED
WITH LIKELIHOOD THAT MODEST INSTABILITY WOULD HINDER A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE EVENT PRECLUDES HIGHLIGHTING A THREAT AREA ATTM.
WITH THE FRONT LIKELY TO HAVE SHIFTED OFF THE ATLANTIC AND GULF
COASTS BY THE START OF DAY 5...ATTENTION TURNS TO THE NEXT SYSTEM TO
AFFECT THE CONUS. BOTH MODELS SUGGEST THAT A LARGE TROUGH WILL DIG
SEWD INTO THE WRN U.S. LATE IN THE PERIOD...WITH A SURFACE SYSTEM
POSSIBLY MOVING INTO THE PLAINS STATES DAY 8. HOWEVER...WITH THIS
SYSTEM EMERGING IN THE WAKE OF A SUBSTANTIAL/COLD SURFACE HIGH
LINGERING OVER THE ERN CONUS...LIKELIHOOD FOR APPRECIABLE MOISTURE
RETURN/DESTABILIZATION APPEAR LIMITED THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
..GOSS.. 11/12/2011
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