SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081903
ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-082000-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2302
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0103 PM CST TUE NOV 08 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN OK...WRN/CENTRAL AR...NERN TX AND NWRN LA
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 875...
VALID 081903Z - 082000Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 875 CONTINUES.
STRONGEST FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER WAVE IN THE TX PANHANDLE WAS
MOVING EWD THROUGH CENTRAL/NRN AR. DESPITE WEAK INSTABILITY
...MUCAPES FROM 250-500 J/KG...DEEP/LOW LEVEL SHEAR AT 50KT/40 KT
RESPECTIVELY ARE SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATING STORMS/BOWS...WITH WIND
DAMAGE AND EVEN A TORNADO OR TWO EXPECTED AS THE STORMS SHIFT EWD
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
FURTHER SWWD...A COLD FRONT WAS NEAR A DUA-AUS LINE...WITH A
A WEAK E-W ORIENTED FRONT LOCATED IN CENTRAL AR. EAST AND SOUTH OF
THESE FRONTS...TEMPERATURES HAD WARMED INTO THE LOWER/MID
70S...RESULTING IN STRONGER INSTABILITY...MUCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG.
CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DURING THE PAST
HOUR AS THE AIR MASS HAS DESTABILIZED. WITH ADDITIONAL HEATING AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR AT 40-50 KT...A FEW SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY TO EVOLVE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE STRONG WIND FIELDS SUGGEST WIND DAMAGE
SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...THOUGH 20-30 KT LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND A
MOIST ENVIRONMENT WILL ALSO SUPPORT TORNADOES.
..IMY.. 11/08/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...OUN...
LAT...LON 31169527 31399643 34109584 34519487 35469373 35649218
35169192 34069223 31419351 31189429 31169527
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment