SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202325
ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-210100-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2344
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0525 PM CST SUN NOV 20 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...NERN TX TO CNTRL AR
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 893...
VALID 202325Z - 210100Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 893
CONTINUES.
THREAT FOR MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL MAY DEVELOP AS TSTM COVERAGE LIKELY
GROWS FROM NERN TX TOWARDS CNTRL AR THIS EVENING. THE PROBABILITY OF
A DOWNSTREAM SEVERE TSTM WATCH ISSUANCE BY 01Z IS 20 PERCENT.
23Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A MESOLOW NEAR CRS WITH A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT EXTENDING NEWD INTO N-CNTRL AR. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF
MODERATE BUOYANCY WITH MLCAPE AROUND 1000 TO 1500 J/KG...INITIAL
CLUSTER OF TSTMS NE OF THE MESOLOW HAVE STRUGGLED TO STRENGTHEN.
THIS MAY BE A RESULT OF STRONG WLYS BEING CONFINED TO AOA 5 KM AGL
/PER DE QUEEN AR PROFILER/...ALONG WITH POOR LAPSE RATES AND WEAK
RIDGING IN THE HIGH-LEVELS. ALTHOUGH A RELATIVELY TIGHT THERMAL
GRADIENT EXISTS WITHIN THE FRONTAL ZONE...ANEMIC SURFACE WINDS
SHOULD LIMIT CONVERGENCE. EVEN SO...ISENTROPIC LIFT OWING TO A
MODEST 20-30 KT LLJ SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN INCREASE IN TSTM
COVERAGE INTO AR THIS EVENING...POTENTIALLY PRODUCING MARGINAL
SEVERE HAIL.
..GRAMS.. 11/20/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...
LAT...LON 31899751 33289605 34529435 35499333 35789247 35649191
34749206 33589301 32869410 31639641 31429713 31899751
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