SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210202
ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-210300-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2345
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0802 PM CST SUN NOV 20 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...NERN TX...SERN OK...SWRN AR
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 893...
VALID 210202Z - 210300Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 893
CONTINUES.
DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF SCATTERED CONVECTION...SEVERE TSTM REPORTS
HAVE YET TO MATERIALIZE INVOF RED RIVER. ALTHOUGH A MARGINAL SEVERE
HAIL EVENT CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT...THE LIKELIHOOD OF A
SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN TSTM INTENSITY IS NOT ANTICIPATED
WITHIN/NEAR WW 893.
BULK OF RECENT TSTM DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN RELEGATED ROUGHLY 100 MILES
N/W OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT STRETCHED FROM NEAR BVX TO 20 W
TXK TO 20 S CRS AS OF 01Z. ONE LONE CELL EXISTS ALONG THE FRONT IN
BOWIE COUNTY TX...WITH DOWNSTREAM STRATIFORM PRECIP SHIELD LIKELY
MITIGATING ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT INTO SWRN AR. ALTHOUGH
EFFECTIVE SHEAR /AROUND 50 KT/ IS CERTAINLY SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING
UPDRAFTS...RELATIVELY THIN EFFECTIVE CAPE FROM ELEVATED PARCELS /PER
MODIFIED 00Z FWD AND SHV RAOBS/ WITHIN THE WEAKLY FORCED ENVIRONMENT
HAS MITIGATED THE DEVELOPMENT OF ROBUST UPDRAFTS. AS THE MID-LEVEL
JET SHIFTS E/NEWD AWAY FROM THE OZARK PLATEAU...TSTM INTENSITY
APPEARS TO BE AT OR NEAR PEAK.
..GRAMS.. 11/21/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...
LAT...LON 35419305 33909367 33269458 33309598 33709628 34609546
35559381 35419305
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