SWOMCD
SPC MCD 300155
MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-300500-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2367
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0755 PM CST TUE NOV 29 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER MICH / NERN IND / FAR NWRN OH
CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
VALID 300155Z - 300500Z
HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES AROUND 1 INCH/HR ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING. THE HEAVIEST RATES WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NEWD INTO LOWER
MICH.
01Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A 999MB LOW NEAR LAKE ONTARIO WITH TEMPS
HOVERING NEAR FREEZING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN IND AND SRN LOWER
MICH. A SINGLE HEAVY BAND OF SNOW RESPONSIBLE FOR SNOWFALL RATES
APPROACHING 2 INCHES/HR PER REPORTS NEAR KOSCIUSKO COUNTY
IND...EXTENDS FROM N-CNTRL IND TO SAGINAW BAY. AS THE DEEP LAYER
CYCLONE CONTINUES TO MIGRATE NEWD...SNOWFALL RATES WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE ACROSS NERN IND AS THE AXIS OF HEAVY SNOW PIVOTS EWD
THROUGH THE AREA. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY AN EXPERIMENTAL CONVECTION
ALLOWING MODEL ENSEMBLE /SSEO/...WHICH HAS DEPICTED THE
PLACEMENT/INTENSITY OF THE SNOW BAND AND SUBSEQUENT SNOW RATES
RATHER WELL. FARTHER N...THE 00Z DTX RAOB SHOWED OVER 100 J/KG
MUCAPE BASED NEAR 600 MB AND A FEW ISOLD LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED THE PAST FEW HOURS OVER LOWER MICH. THE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE SNOW BANDS /ENHANCED
RATES/ THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE SSEO GUIDANCE SHOWS THE
HEAVIEST RATES /1 INCH PER HOUR/ POSITIONING NEWD FROM THE
OH/IND/MICH VICINITY TO NEAR LAN AND THE I-96/I-69 CORRIDOR AND
POINTS NE...TOWARDS SAGINAW BAY IN THE 03-05Z TIMEFRAME.
..SMITH.. 11/30/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...
LAT...LON 40858581 42848473 44408360 43868264 40868486 40858581
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment