SWODY1
SPC AC 020510
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1110 PM CST THU DEC 01 2011
VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A MIDLEVEL LOW POSITIONED OVER THE LWR CO
VALLEY AT 2/00Z...WHILE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A NRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING SEWD ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA. AS THIS
UPSTREAM WAVE ENTERS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS LATER IN THE DAY...THE
CLOSED LOW OVER THE SWRN CONUS IS FORECAST TO OPEN UP AND EJECT
TOWARD THE SRN ROCKIES. MEANWHILE...AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS SEWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO CNTRL TX...AND THEN
ARCS W-NWWD TOWARD AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER AZ. AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO NM LATE IN THE
PERIOD...HEIGHT FALLS IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE WILL AID IN
REDEVELOPMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW OVER SRN CO/NRN NM. LOW-LEVEL SLYS
WILL STRENGTHEN IN RESPONSE...CAUSING THE SURFACE FRONT OVER TX TO
RETREAT NWWD TOWARD W TX.
...SRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
AS HEIGHT FALLS OCCUR DOWNSTREAM FROM THE EJECTING SWRN CONUS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...30-50 KT SLY LLJ IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE
SRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS AFTER 3/00Z. THIS WILL AID IN TRANSPORTING 850
MB DEWPOINTS FROM 6-10 C INTO THE REGION...AND ALSO CAUSE LOW-LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE TO RETREAT WWD. THOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN
STABLE THROUGH THE NIGHT...WARM/MOIST NOSE ABOVE THE SURFACE
COMBINED WITH 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES NEAR OR EXCEEDING 7 C/KM WILL
AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED MUCAPE VALUES FROM 100-300 J/KG.
COMBINATION OF INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
SHOULD LEAD TO THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM PORTIONS OF THE
TRANS-PECOS REGION/SWRN TX NEWD TOWARD SRN KS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HRS.
..GARNER/KERR.. 12/02/2011
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