SWODY1
SPC AC 030527
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1127 PM CST FRI DEC 02 2011
VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD INTO NM EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL DE-AMPLIFY AS IT ACCELERATES NEWD ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP IN
RESPONSE TO THE EJECTING UPPER DISTURBANCE...MOVING INTO THE LWR MO
VALLEY BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND THEN NEWD ACROSS THE UPR MS VALLEY
TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. AS THIS TAKES PLACE...SWWD TRAILING
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS BEFORE STALLING OVER
CNTRL/SRN TX LATE TONIGHT. FARTHER UPSTREAM...THE NEXT IN A SERIES
OF UPPER WAVES WILL DROP SWD FROM THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE LWR CO
VALLEY BY EVENING.
...SRN PLAINS...
WV IMAGERY SHOWS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT INCREASING/EXPANDING EWD ACROSS
NM INTO W TX EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL AID IN CONTINUED
STRENGTHENING OF SLY LLJ OVER TX/OK INTO THE START OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. MODERATELY STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ATOP WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION AT 850 MB WILL YIELD MUCAPE VALUES FROM 100-400 J/KG. THIS
INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE/WAA WILL FAVOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...LIKELY ONGOING OVER W/NWRN
TX AND WRN OK AT 12Z...SHIFTING EWD WITH THE LLJ AXIS TOWARD CNTRL
OK BY MID TO LATE MORNING. INSTABILITY AND ASCENT ARE THEN FORECAST
TO BECOME UNFAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AFTER 18Z.
DURING THE OVERNIGHT...SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SWD THROUGH MUCH
OF THE SRN PLAINS...BECOMING SITUATED FROM SWRN INTO NERN TX BY
4/12Z. CONTINUED MOISTURE FLUX OVER THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S ALONG AND S OF THE FRONT...WHICH
WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAKLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. THOUGH
LAPSE RATES WILL BE WEAK...AND THE REGION WILL RESIDE IN BETWEEN TWO
UPPER TROUGHS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT AFTER 4/00Z.
...SRN/CNTRL AZ...
A COLD MIDLEVEL AIRMASS /500 MB TEMPERATURES AOB -25C/ WILL BE
MAINTAINED OVER AZ AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE LWR CO
VALLEY...YIELDING STEEP LOW/MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER THE REGION. AS
A RESULT...WEAK INSTABILITY /MUCAPE VALUES NEAR 100 J PER KG/ IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER SRN INTO CNTRL AZ DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL FAVOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS ASCENT
SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
..GARNER/KERR.. 12/03/2011
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