SWODY1
SPC AC 170059
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0659 PM CST FRI DEC 16 2011
VALID 170100Z - 171200Z
...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
MID-UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN CHARACTERIZED BY MEAN TROUGHING
AND CYCLONIC FLOW OVER MUCH OF ERN CONUS. DEVELOPING REX PATTERN
CHARACTERIZES W COAST PATTERN...WITH RIDGING OVER PAC NW AND CUT-OFF
CYCLONE RETROGRADING SLOWLY SWWD OVER/OFFSHORE NRN BAJA. NRN-STREAM
TROUGH HAS DEPARTED NERN CONUS AND WILL LEAVE CANADIAN MARITIMES FOR
OPEN N ATLC OVERNIGHT.
AT SFC...COLD FRONTAL ZONE WAS EVIDENT AT 23Z FROM LOW OVER NRN
SC...SWWD ACROSS NRN GA AND LOWER MS DELTA REGION TO NWRN GULF.
EXPECT FRONT TO PROCEED SEWD OFFSHORE CAROLINAS AND OVER NRN FL
THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD...WHILE MOVING SLOWLY SWD ACROSS NRN/WRN
GULF.
LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS ACROSS CONUS...IN WAKE OF FRONT...IS TOO STABLE
AND/OR DRY TO SUPPORT GEN THUNDER THREAT. COLD-CORE TSTM POTENTIAL
WITH BAJA LOW SHOULD REMAIN S OF MEX BORDER...WHERE FAVORABLE LAPSE
RATES AND AT LEAST MRGL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ARE MORE PROBABLE.
MEANWHILE...ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT...OBSERVED AND FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW
LAYERS OF STABLE LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES UNSUPPORTED OF TSTM
POTENTIAL OVER LAND...EXCEPT NEAR LOWER DELTA WHERE LIFT IS TOO
WEAK.
..EDWARDS.. 12/17/2011
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