SWODY1
SPC AC 201255
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0655 AM CST TUE DEC 20 2011
VALID 201300Z - 211200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
OK/KS UPR LOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ENE TO NEAR TOP THIS EVE...AND TO
NEAR UIN BY 12Z WED...AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO BE REABSORBED INTO THE
WLYS. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW NOW IN CNTRL OK SHOULD TRACK ENE INTO N
CNTRL AR THIS EVE AND INTO SW IND BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. PACIFIC
COLD FRONT AND PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE AXES TRAILING SSW FROM THE LOW
LIKELY WILL REMAIN THE MAIN FOCI FOR TSTMS.
...LWR MS/TN VLYS/CNTRL GULF CST TODAY/TNGT...
LOOSELY ORGANIZED LINE OF PRE-FRONTAL TSTMS NOW EXTENDING FROM SE TX
NEWD INTO THE LWR MS VLY SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY EWD TODAY....WITH
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTN THROUGH TNGT. AHEAD
OF THE LINE...SFC DEW POINTS WILL RISE INTO THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S
F...WITH PW INCREASING TO AOA 1.25 INCHES. SFC HEATING
WILL...HOWEVER...BE MINIMAL AND MID LVL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY WEAK. THUS...BUOYANCY WILL BE MODEST...WITH AFTN SBCAPE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND 500 J/KG IN LA TO LESS THAN 250 J/KG
IN WRN TN. NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN 50+ KT DEEP SWLY SHEAR ON SE SIDE
OF EXITING UPR LOW...THE STORMS MAY POSE AN ISOLD DMGG WIND AND/OR
TORNADO THREAT. THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS SHOULD BEGIN OVER
PARTS OF LA...WRN MS AND POSSIBLY ERN AR THIS AFTN...AND SPREAD NE
INTO NRN MS..WRN AND MIDDLE TN...AND POSSIBLY SRN KY THIS EVE AS
700-500 SPEED MAX SKIRTS REGION IN SE QUADRANT OF UPR LOW.
ELSEWHERE...OTHER TSTMS ARE EXPECTED OVER AL AND THE FL PANHANDLE
LATER TODAY THROUGH TNGT/EARLY WED...IN ZONE OF ENHANCED LOW LVL
MOISTURE/CONFLUENCE SPREADING NWD FROM THE CNTRL AND ERN GULF OF
MEXICO /PER SATELLITE/. INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK IN
THIS REGION...ALTHOUGH SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A FEW SUSTAINED STORMS
GIVEN 40+ KT WSWLY DEEP SHEAR. WEAK LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT
AND WEAK LOW LVL LAPSE RATES SHOULD...HOWEVER...MITIGATE ANY
ASSOCIATED SVR THREAT.
..CORFIDI/HURLBUT.. 12/20/2011
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